They argue that stoppage of energy supply to the industry would ultimately force them to close their businesses, leading to unemployment on a mass scale. As a result, majority of the domestic consumers would be left with no money even to feed themselves.
“It takes years to establish an industry but it goes into the red in few months if the enabling environment is denied to it,” an expert warned. The economists said recurring expenses of industries could not be met if they were forced to curtail normal production for which they had hired staff and arranged other facilities.
Once an industry went sick, they warned, its revival would be extremely difficult as liabilities started mounting with every passing day. They said only sustained industrial growth could generate resources for a long-term solution of the electricity and gas crisis.
The economists pointed out that the industry had not been fairly treated during the past decade. At the onset of the energy crisis some five years ago, the industries were encouraged to install big diesel-run power generators. However, when the cost of diesel went up, these generators became redundant. Then, they added, the industries arranged more expensive furnace oil-cum-gas run generators.
Natural gas was the most economical fuel for generating electricity as furnace oil prices tripled in the past two years due to increase in global crude oil rates. They said cutting gas supplies to industries meant producing energy at over Rs10 per unit.
The economists said it was a folly on the part of the government to expand the domestic base of natural gas supplies when it knew that there was shortage of the fuel for already existing consumers. Under that programme, Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Ltd provided 225,000 domestic and 400 CNG connections last year while the industry and power generating companies faced supply cut.
They said suspension of gas supply had double impact on electricity generation, first in the shape of higher fuel cost and second high maintenance cost if generators ran on furnace oil. They said furnace oil or diesel-run thermal generators were required to be stopped after a month or so for cleansing, otherwise their generating capacity would start declining.
That was the reason when last summer the private producers and Water and Power Development Authority produced much less thermal power than their capacity and shutdowns of thermal units were frequent for repair and maintenance.
They said commercial users like hotels and restaurants, particularly big hotels, should be asked to shift to liquefied petroleum gas instead of natural gas. It might add to the cooking cost, they said, but the impact as percentage of the total would be nominal. The energy thus saved should be provided to industries and power producers.
Similarly, the economists suggested there should be domestic gas loadshedding cyclically in different localities for four hours a day which would spare 8 to 10 per cent of gas for industries. They said closing CNG stations in periods of acute shortage would mean doubling the fuel cost of motorists.
All sectors affected by these measures would naturally protest but the government would have to take the steps in order to ensure the industries kept running. Control over consumption should continue even if the supplies increased, they said.
The conservation of electricity was also of vital importance till new capacities were created, they said adding traders should be forced to close shops by 7pm and all air-conditioners in government offices be removed. The state itself should lead in this conservation drive.
Government offices, they pointed out, still ran electric heaters in winter and air-conditioners in summer, which was not the case a decade ago. However, the efficiency of bureaucracy has not increased due to these facilities.