LAHORE: Pakistan’s demographic profile provides unlimited growth potential as it is one of the youngest nations in the world with a median age of 22 years. With 58 percent literacy rate it has higher educated population than the entire population of Singapore.
Singapore with a population of 5.7 million exports goods worth $380 billion annually, while Pakistan with a population of 200 million managed exports worth $19.81 billion in 2015-16.
If we look at the demographic profile of Pakistan, about 68 million are aged in the bracket of 0-14 years, 120 million are aged 15-59, and 12 million are above 60 years. With a working age population of 120 million people, exports worth $19.81 billion are pathetic when compared with Singapore. Pakistan has failed to reap the dividends of its demographic advantage.
Some economists argue that the literacy rate in Singapore is much higher than Pakistan. But if education is one of the major reasons, than out of 120 million working population the literate population should be higher than the entire population of Singapore.
If the difference is the quality of education even then at least 20 percent of the literates in Pakistan have attained similar quality as in Singapore. These 20 percent well-educated people should have taken the exports or the economy to at least half that achieved by the tiny island.
It has now been established that education, health and infrastructure do not deliver in the absence of prudent government policies and governance. The governance bar in Singapore is much higher than that of Pakistan.
Governance level in Pakistan is among the lowest in the world. Pakistan is amongst the 25 most corrupt countries in the world while Singapore is among the top 10. The economic policies in Singapore are stable and refined prudently on long term basis. The economic policies in Pakistan are short term that create uncertainty and keep the investors at bay.
The industries and service sector have access to top skilled professionals in Singapore, whereas there is dearth of skilled professionals in Pakistan. Rich human capital is paying dividends in the tiny island. Peace and security in Singapore is exemplary, while Pakistanis are struggling for the last two decades for security and tranquillity.
Islamabad needs to devise polices and strategies to produce skilled and semi-skilled human capital both for domestic and global markets. Policies are needed that stop regular brain drain from the country. India has done this successfully where there is now reverse brain drain. After seeing better opportunities at home, overseas Indians are coming back in large numbers.
The savings rates in Singapore are much higher than Pakistan where savings are lowest in entire Asia. The saving schemes launched by the state do not create productivity. The money deposited in National Saving Schemes is used by the state as a loan and consumed for non-development work instead of putting it in productive use.
The tax machinery in Singapore is one of the most efficient in the world, generating tax returns for the taxpayers, who do not need to file tax returns. Tax machinery in Pakistan is the most inefficient in the world.
The informal economy is almost nonexistent in Singapore while its size is larger than the formal economy in Pakistan. This is impeding efficient economic activities. Unemployment, poverty, social unrest, and deteriorating law and order situation are the outcomes of years of bad governance. Injustice and non-merit based appointments destroyed the social fabric of the society.
A turnaround is possible only if we introduce true accountability, reform our rich oriented education and health systems. Singapore and Dubai have excelled on the strength of their strong institutions. With the same quality of institutions, Pakistan’s exports should touch $600 billion in ten years.
