Strategic conundrum

Pakistan’s decision this week to intensify targeting India for its backing of a spate of terrorist attacks across the country marks a major policy shift.

For years, Pakistani officials have periodically accused India of seeking to destabilize Pakistan through one terrorist attack after another, notably across Balochistan and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. But the decision to assemble scattered evidence into a full dossier with the promise to use that document for lobbying across the world marks a new initiative at the center of a fresh policy push. With this, Pakistan has embarked on what could best be characterized as a strategic tightrope that must reconcile opportunities with challenges. In brief, it’s a conundrum with an eventual outcome yet to become clear.

The decision coincides with the recent intensification of hostilities along the Line of Control at a scale considerably more than the periodic armed exchanges that have taken place.

The heightened Indo-Pakistan tension comes less than two years after the last escalation in February 2019, that saw Pakistan retaliate to a botched Indian attack on an alleged terrorist training site near Balakot. What emerged later was that it was no more than India’s targeting of a deserted location in a remote village, with few indications of life nearby. The capture of Indian air force pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman and his subsequent return to India as a peace gesture, brought kudos for Pakistan of the kind rarely seen.

Pakistan is right to document what it says is evidence of Indian backing of terrorist attacks on its soil. But this escalation of noise must be backed with a clearer consensus across the country, bringing diverse political and societal voices on a common platform.

Already, the path chosen by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif has created a widening rift across the political divide. Sharif’s stance has positioned the former prime minister on an irreconcilable path versus Pakistan’s ruling structure. Although Sharif’s PML-N remains the main opposition party, there are other opposition factions which must be reached out as part of a new national consensus building exercise.

While Pakistan publicizes its case around the world, the domestic front must also be targeted for fulfilling this cause. Across Pakistan’s length and breadth, different communities must be brought on board through a consensus building exercise, all in support of a new push.

The architects of this exercise must recognize the ethnic and linguistic diversity of Pakistan, with region after region inhabited by one community after another. In some ways, bringing these diverse communities together can be challenging. But the reward at the end in the shape of a more united Pakistan will be worth the effort.

As Pakistan confronts a second wave of the dreaded coronavirus epidemic, any move towards greater national unity can bring much needed dividends. Forging unity on one front, related to India-specific policy, can evolve towards unity on other fronts too.

In this background, Prime Minister Imran Khan and other members of his ruling structure must also consider the pressing need for economic reforms. More importantly, the fruits of such reforms can create a basis for an all-inclusive environment that begins to touch the lives of low-income households.

As Pakistan seeks to head towards a new chapter in its foreign policy towards India, the need for greater national unity can not be kept detached from economic trends across the country. Hit by the fallout from Covid-19, Pakistan’s poorest households have been hit by unprecedented inflation, notably around prices of food commodities.

Pakistan’s yearning for national unity demands of Prime Minister Khan to oversee unprecedented reforms that help lift economic opportunities. Towards this end, revitalizing Pakistan’s sagging agricultural incomes is essential not just to revitalize the economy but also to give a renewed sense of ownership of the country to communities that have been long side-lined from Pakistan’s developmental journey.

As for the case on Kashmir, the continuing defiance from the population at large in Occupied Kashmir has already thrown up a clear writing on the wall: that the determination of the Kashmiris cannot be broken.

The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist who writes on political and economic affairs.

Email: farhanbokhari@gmail.com