Climate change impact: Sindh most vulnerable hotspot in Pakistan, says WB

ISLAMABAD: Sindh has emerged as the most vulnerable hotspot in Pakistan, followed by Punjab, reveals the World Bank’s book on South Asia’s Hotspot -- The Impact of Temperature and Precipitation Changes on Living Standards.

The writers of the book are Muthukumara Mani, Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay, Shun Chonabayashi, Anil Markandya and Thomas Mosier. Changes in average weather are predicted in the book to reduce living standards in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, relative to what they would have been with the same climate as today. By 2050, under the carbon intensive scenario, the declines are projected to be 6.7 percent for Bangladesh, 2.8 percent for India, 2.9 percent for Pakistan, and 7.0 percent for Sri Lanka.

In this book, a hotspot is defined as a location where changes in average weather will have a negative effect on living standards. In Pakistan, the book’s analysis reveal that expanding electricity access by 30 percent above current levels would reduce the living standards burden from –2.9 percent to –2.5 percent.

Mentioning the low riparian federating units of Pakistan, the book says that Sindh has the second-largest economy, with a per capita GDP of $1,400, which is 35 percent more than the national average.

The province has a highly diversified economy ranging from heavy industry and finance centred in and around Karachi to a substantial agricultural base along the Indus River. Changes in average weather will add another dimension to the future growth of Sindh, given its high vulnerability.

Punjab, which is the most densely populated province, is also the second-most vulnerable. Punjab has the largest economy in Pakistan (contributing 53.3 percent of Pakistan’s GDP),and overall has the lowest rate of poverty of all the provinces.

However, the prosperity is unevenly distributed throughout the province, with the northern portion being relatively well off economically and the southern portion among the most impoverished in the country. Long-term climate vulnerability has implications for both growth and poverty reduction for Punjab.

Hyderabad district in Sindh has emerged as the top hotspot followed by the districts of Mirpur Khas and Sukkur and some of the densely populated cities in Punjab, including Lahore, Multan, and Faisalabad, emerged among the top 10 hotspot districts. This highlights the importance of addressing changes in average weather in the economically important Punjab and Sindh.