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Friday March 29, 2024

On the slide again?

By our correspondents
June 24, 2017

US President Donald Trump has mostly been silent on Pakistan during his first five months in power, but that may be about to change. As part of its security review on Afghanistan, the Trump administration is looking to get tougher on Pakistan. Trump seems to have bought in to Afghanistan’s claim that Pakistan is behind the recent spate of militant attacks in the country – something which was repeated by Afghanistan’s ambassador to the US in a recent dialogue with his Pakistani counterpart in Washington where he urged Trump to halt weapons sales to Pakistan.      A report released by the US Department of Defence, while praising Pakistan for disrupting militant networks, claimed that the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network still have freedom of action on Pakistani soil. India is also ramping up the pressure on Pakistan, with its envoy to the US giving a speech in which he – without specifically naming – blamed Pakistan for supporting militant groups and the US for not taking action against us or the groups. The US is unlikely to stop weapons sales but it may pressurise us in different ways. The four drone strikes this year – already more than last year, with the most recent taking place last week – could be a sign that the US will once again rely on unmanned vehicles as an alternative to intelligence cooperation with Pakistan. It is also reportedly considering downgrading Pakistan’s status as a major non-Nato ally. This status was given to Pakistan in 2004 and codified the strong strategic working relationship between the governments and armed forces of the two countries. Revoking that status would both be a way of symbolically putting Pakistan on notice and as a precursor to a possible cut in military aid.

The renewed interest of the US in Pakistan has come about because it is considering sending thousands of additional troops to Afghanistan. The allegation that Pakistan is sheltering the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network will worry the US since both militant outfits are likely to target US forces. Pakistan thus needs to double its efforts to show that it is working towards peace in the region and wants to cooperate with the Afghan government to bring about a negotiated peace and an end to its long-running civil war. It is also needs to convince the Americans that their relationship with Pakistan should not only be contingent on Afghanistan. While the noises emanating from the White House right now may be worrying, if there is one thing we know about the Trump administration it is that it seems to be making its foreign policy on the fly. On the vital issue of Qatar, the president and the secretary of state have articulated two very different policies. This means nothing is set in stone yet and Pakistan has the opportunity to convince the Trump administration that its alliance with us needs to be strengthened rather than discarded.