One can’t say that Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) has been hijacked or rescued with certainty, but it has certainly been divided with little hope to reunite again. The infighting within the party is likely to intensify in the coming weeks and months, but this 'Great Divide' has also divided the strong Muhajir vote bank, as its political titanic is ‘sinking’. This is the worst year in MQM's 35-year politics and it is meaningless to go into any blame-game as the worst suffers remain its voters.
The politics based on 'Manzil Nahi Rahnuma’, has now entered a crucial phase and the next election would determine how much Muhajirs vote bank has been divided. Ironically, the division has come at a time when there is a possibility that after census and delimitations, the seats of Karachi would increase in good numbers, but the city is likely to have more than two or three representative parties.
Every party now hopes to see further division in the MQM rank and file and awaits the final outcome of the fighting amongst the MQM-London, the MQM-Pakistan, and Pak-Sarzameen Party.
The parties which has the capacity to fill the vacuum include Jamaat-e-Islami, Pakistan People’s Party and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, all three facing difficult situation since 2013 elections. But the MQM's divided house has provided them with an opportunity to make inroads into its strong constituencies since 1987.
The fractions within MQM has now turned into a power struggle particularly between the MQM-Pakistan and MQM-London as the workers of the two factions are now heading for possible confrontation as witnessed in the last few days.
Although Pak-Sarzameen Party (PSP), led by former MQM leaders Mustafa Kamal, Anis Qaimkhani and Raza Haroon, continued their attacks on MQM founder Altaf Hussain, the reaction from London is more against MQM-Pakistan than the PSP, which is understandable.
The PSP is a new party and has broken all its ties with the MQM and is ready to challenge Altaf Hussain from its own platform and will contest the next elections as the PSP, with its own flag and election symbol. Thus, for MQM, it’s a different kind of challenge and they are confident of taking the PSP like any other party.
The PSP also intends to increase pressure on the MQM-Pakistan members to abandon the party and joined its fold, something which so far has been rejected by Dr Farooq Sattar.
In the next 30 days, both MQM-Pakistan and PSP will demonstrate their respective show of strength. While the PSP has picked Hyderabad as it remains the stronghold of its president, Anis Qaimkhani, on November 25, while the MQM-Pakistan has announced its public meeting on December 25.
This show of strength is not only to demonstrate its own working and support but also the message to the 'establishment’, as to which group has more weightage. It is also interesting that PSP and MQM-Pakistan are demonstrating in two different cities, which once remains the stronghold of united MQM.
Where is MQM-London, and for them the MQM-Pakistan is the bigger problem than the PSP, as it controls party's organisational setup and also representation in the assemblies and local bodies.
Secondly, in the eyes of the law, the MQM-Pakistan is not only registered with the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) but in the next election will contest with its election symbol ‘Kite’.
Secondly, the MQM-Pakistan early this month held its intra-party elections and elected Dr Farooq Sattar as its convener, replacing Nadeem Nusrat, whose name as convener was kept pending in the ECP due to incomplete election results of the last elections.
The ECP has also issued the certificate to MQM, and has accepted Dr Farooq Sattar as its new convener.
With this new development, the MQM-Pakistan’s separation from MQM-London has now been completed or in other words separation has now turned into ‘divorce’.
Thus, the reaction from London, on Thursday, was understandable and its leaders, Nadeem Nusrat, Mustafa Azizabadi and others have accused Dr Farooq Sattar, Karachi Mayor Waseem Akhtar, leader of the opposition in Sindh Assembly Khwaja Izharul Hasan and Faisal Sabzwari as party 'hijackers’.
Now, how valid is London's objection on Farooq Sattar and his team?
Apparently, Nusrat and others believe that in the post-August 22 situation, MQM founder Altaf Hussain had accepted Farooq Sattar's position to disassociate MQM-Pakistan from him after his anti-Pakistan speech or slogans. But, when two resolutions were moved by the party against Altaf Hussain and in Sindh Assembly, their leaders also termed him a 'traitor' with a demand of trial under Article VI, it became impossible for them to accept it.
This position of MQM-London has some weight in its own perspective as they believe that if the resolution had included condemnation of some other leaders who too from time to time had made anti-Pakistan remarks, it would have created some kind of balance.
Differences within the party came to surface after the 2013 elections, which later resulted in revolt within the party and formation of Pak-Sarzameen Party, led by Mustafa Kamal and Anis Qaimkhani. The group also included some past stalwarts of the party like Raza Haroon.
I also have information that within the MQM-Pakistan, the resolution of the Sindh Assembly became a matter of serious differences before it was decided to go ahead with it. However, what they did not realise was that even the demand for trial under Article VI was un-constitutional, as the article only relates to the abrogation of the Constitution.
The MQM-Pakistan leaders also committed a mistake by making too many speeches on the resolution, which created further discomforts within their own rank and file.
However, what MQM-London fails to understand that it was London, which has put its leaders in Pakistan in a difficult position, not once but constantly since 2013 election, which first led to formation of the PSP and after August 22 led to another split.
Even former governor of Sindh, Dr Ishratul Ebad, was part of MQM during all this period and he too faced difficulties in repairing the damage more than once, often caused due to Altaf Hussain's speeches, which in the end led to the ban on his address.
The MQM-London has not got level playing field and what happened after the arrest of its new Rabita Committee, leaders like Dr Zafar Arif, Kanwar Khalid Yunus, Amjadullah, Saati Ishaq and others was a clear message that they will not get it as Altaf Hussain will not get any relief even if the change of command in the army comes after Nov 29.
The allegations against MQM-Pakistan leaders for living 'lavish lifestyle’, while the party leaders and workers in jail, also not totally untrue. This is one area which the united MQM needs to share the burden when their leaders and ministers, been accused of minting money in the name of the party.
The question is why the party failed in addressing this issue. Majority of the MQM leaders, who have addressed the press conference, had not visited Pakistan for the past several years, even in good as well as in bad days.
Although, the MQM-Pakistan so far has maintained its grip on the party's legislature and local bodies, it alone is not a guaranty for its success in the next elections.
Any patch-up, particularly between the MQM-Pakistan and MQM-London, looks difficult as accepting Altaf Hussain, unless he is 'cleared' by the establishment, would push Dr Sattar and others in 'no-win' situation.
Either due to fear or because of ground realities, the fact remains that the MQM-London has not been able to create any major cracks in Sattar's camp as yet. London's strength could be 'Muhajir voters’, but in the absence of any organisational work and un-official ban, it would be very difficult for them to go in the next elections.
Though there is still time in the next elections, efforts to unite MQM factions under former president, Pervez Musharraf, has failed. He was first approached by some veteran MQM supporters to play his role, followed by one of MQM founders Saleem Shahzad asked him to use his good offices in bringing MQM and PSP on one platform, but after three hours meeting with Khwaja Izharul Hasan, he has withdrawn from making any further attempt to unit them.
In 2001, MQM's boycott of the local governments’ elections allowed Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) to get its mayor elected and in 2002, it’s also lost seven NA seats.
If London really wants to play any decisive role, its leadership has to come to Pakistan, if not Altaf Hussain, at least others like Nadeem Nusrat and Mustafa Azizabadi.
In politics, leaders have to lead from the front to give motivation to the workers and supporters. Can they take that risk and if they do, they will get the answer whether the MQM was hijacked or rescued.
The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang
