China’s population falls for a third consecutive year

HONG KONG: China’s population fell for a third consecutive year in 2024, with the number of deaths outpacing a slight increase in births, and experts cautioning that the trend will accelerate in the coming years.

The National Bureau of Statistics said the total number of people in China dropped by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion in 2024, compared to 1.409 billion in 2023.

Friday’s data reinforces concerns that the world’s second largest economy will struggle as the number of workers and consumers declines. Rising costs from elderly care and retirement benefits are also likely to create additional strains for already indebted local governments.

China’s total number of births was 9.54 million versus 9.02 million in 2023, the statistics bureau said. The birth rate rose to 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2024 versus 6.39 per 1,000 people in 2023.

As in neighbouring Japan and South Korea, large numbers of Chinese people have moved from rural farms to cities, where having children is more expensive.

The high cost of childcare and education as well as job uncertainty and a slowing economy have also discouraged many young Chinese from getting married and starting a family.

Gender discrimination and traditional expectations for women to take care of the home exacerbate the issue, demographers say.

“Much of China’s population decline is rooted in entrenched structural reasons: Without fundamental structural transformations - from enhancing the social safety net to eliminating gender discrimination - the trend of population decline cannot be reversed,” said Yun Zhou, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Michigan.