Sindh suffers steepest fall in cotton arrivals

LAHORE: Sindh has recorded a steepest fall in cotton arrivals as the output of one of the main cash crops in all the silver-fibre producing districts across the province remained lower because of super floods.

According to the fortnightly data released by Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), cotton arrivals in Sindh dropped 41 percent to 1.39 million bales by October 01, 2022, compared with the same period last year.

All the cotton districts of Sindh province registered downward production trend except for Badin. The sharpest fall has been witnessed in Naushero Feroze, where cotton arrivals dropped to 76.29 percent followed by Khairpur, showing 65.98 percent fall in the same period.

Cotton production fell 59.86 percent in Nawabshah e, Sukkur suffered a fall 53.57 percent, 39.86 percent in Jamshoro, 34.13 percent in Mirpur Khas, and it saw a decline of 32.05 percent in Sanghar.

Sindh production losses dented the total national output by 23.67 percent to 2.93 million bales till October 01, 2022 against 3.84 million bales in the same period a year back. However, cotton arrivals at ginning stage rose marginally to 3.3 percent in Punjab that produced 1.54 million bales during period under review.

Cotton picking visibly took big hit from rains and/or flood in almost all districts of South Punjab, a core cotton belt of the country. Cotton arrivals in Rajanpur were the lowest in the province as they plunged by 72.12 percent decline, followed by Bahawalnagar which saw a drop of 34.05 percent. Moreover, arrivals in Lodhran fell 4.85 percent, Bahawalpur 8.50 percent, Muzaffargarh 7.50 percent, Dera Ghazi Khan 6.87 percent, and Layyah by 3.30 percent till October 01, 2022 over the corresponding period of last year.

The production of cotton in Balochitan, another province hit hard by the flash floods, has been trailing by 23.12 percent in the period under review. It may be noted that recent flash floods have adversely affected cotton and other important crops.

According to estimates prepared by the Planning Commission of Pakistan, crops like cotton, rice, maize, and sugarcane, are largely affected by the floods/rainwater, while the growth in major crops is expected to remain negative by 14 to 15.4 percent. The growth in other crops is also expected to remain negative by 12 to 15 percent.

Collectively, the floods have also killed around one million large and small animals. The anticipated growth of 3.7 percent in livestock is now expected to remain between 2 to 3 percent. Farming sector losses are expected to be 3.5 to 4.5 percent. As a result, agriculture growth may remain negative by 0.7 to 2.1 percent compared to the target of 3.9 percent.

The Planning Commission has estimated the collective cost of flood damages and losses at $28 billion, while the reconstruction may span over 10 long years. This estimated cost includes the $11 billion losses on account of slower than the targeted growth rate of 5 percent — a figure that could be challenged by the international lenders that have predicted a 3.5 percent growth rate even in the pre-flood scenario.