Desire to change

On March 18, at the National Security Division’s first-ever ‘security dialogue’, General Qamar Javed Bajwa stated that it is “our desire to change the narrative of geo-political contestation into geo-economic integration.” That’s major. That’s unprecedented. But what does that really mean? If Clausewitz, the Prussian general and military theorist, was asked to comment on General Bajwa’s statement he would have said: General Bajwa wants to move from the ‘logic of war’ to the ‘grammar of commerce’. Perhaps, General Bajwa wants to move Pakistan from the ‘grammar of conflict’ towards the ‘methods of commerce’.

What is geo-economics? According to Robert Blackwell and Jennifer Harris in 'War By Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft': “The use of economic instruments to promote and defend national interests.” Yes, Pakistan has national interests and, yes, we have long been defending those interests with a primary focus on military instruments. Are we now going to use economic instruments to promote and defend our national interests?

Most countries around the world now define their national interests purely in economic terms. Pakistan does not. Most countries around the world now design their national security strategies around their economic security. Pakistan still does not. Most countries now formulate their foreign policies around their economic interests. Pakistan does not. Pakistan’s overwhelming focus to promote and defend its national interests continues to be the military instruments at its disposal.

To be certain, the two economic instruments at Pakistan’s disposal are ‘connectivity’ and surplus domestic production (for exports). Imagine: a billion people in Pakistan’s east and a hundred million land-locked in Pakistan’s west – connect the two and use this economic instrument to defend national interests. Yes, there are two challenges: a volatile Afghanistan and the US-China great power contest.

Pakistan’s second economic instrument is to produce a large domestic surplus (for exports). For the Bajwa Doctrine’s geo-economics to succeed, cartels within Pakistan’s domestic sector would have to be broken. As per a UN report, Pakistan’s civil and military elite take away $17.4 billion a year, every year in ‘economic privileges’. To be sure, Pakistan’s economy is going nowhere unless – at least – these four cartels are broken: the sugar cartel, the fertilizer cartel, the power cartel and the automobile cartel.

Yes, the essence of the Bajwa Doctrine is geo-economics and the first step towards Pakistan’s geo-economics is all about breaking up cartels – and creating a super-competitive domestic production sector. Yes, ‘connectivity’ will be good but we must produce our own exportable surpluses to be shipped via this ‘connectivity’-not just let other countries sell their goods through our ‘connectivity’.

To be certain, between March 18 and today absolutely nothing has changed on the ground – but there is this realization that our national power now depends more on ‘economic instruments’ and that the state of Pakistan must move towards relying more on economic power.

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.

Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com Twitter: @saleemfarrukh