Report shows an average decrease of roughly 40% in violence-related deaths

Islamabad

The executive summary of the Annual Security Report 2015 conducted by the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) on ‘Violence-Related Deaths in Pakistan 2013-2015’  says that Pakistan continued to face a range of internal security issues in 2015, resulting in a wide variety of different forms of violence, but there is an average decrease of roughly 40% which it called ‘pronounced and significant’.

The report, however, says that with the enactment of the National Action Plan (NAP), there seemed to be some semblance of a coordinated state response to terrorism and crime. The direct correlation between the NAP and the apparent decrease in violence-related fatalities is difficult to establish, it observed. 

According to the report, the major sources of deaths in 2015 included terrorism, militant attacks, target killings and security operations. Compared to 7,622 deaths in 2014, a total of 4,612 people died in 2015 as a direct result of violence, which is an average decrease of roughly 40%.

Regionally, the decrease in overall fatalities can be largely attributed to a sharp decrease in violence-related fatalities in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Fata and Sindh, the latter two of which exhibited a roughly 45% decrease in fatalities.

The rate of fatalities in Fata fell from 3,371 in 2014 to 1,917 in 2015. The same figures for Sindh declined from 2,186 in 2014 to 1,221 in 2015. The most remarkable percentage decrease was observed in KP, where violence-related fatalities fell from 952 in 2014 to 441 in 2015, (53% decline). Balochistan also observed a slight decrease, whereas Punjab saw a slight increase. 

District-wise, despite a major overall decrease, Karachi topped as the most violence-affected district, even above North Waziristan. However, it must be said that even in Karachi violence-related deaths halved from 2014, falling from 2,023 to 1,040. Other highly affected districts were North Waziristan Agency (814), Khyber Agency (752), Peshawar (136) and Quetta (106) respectively. Every single one of these showed a significant decline.

When we look at the sources of fatalities, new, interesting patterns emerge. Much like in 2014, security operations accounted for the most number of fatalities in 2015 as security forces in Pakistan continued to engage militants, insurgents and criminals alike in border-region clean-up operations and urban pacification operations. Security operation related-fatalities dropped from 3,391 in 2014 to 2,618 in 2015. In addition, there was a sharp decline in terrorism and militancy-related fatalities as well as target killings. Both terrorism and militancy related fatalities declined by half: fatalities from direct militant attack dropped from 982 in 2014 to 445 in 2015 (55%) and other terrorism fatalities dropped from 516 in 2014 to 246 in 2015 (52%). The most remarkable decline was observed in target killings, which dropped 65% from 2,217 in 2014 to 802 in 2015.

Sectarian fatalities also saw a decline in 2015, with 272 fatalities, compared with 2014’s 420, which is a 35% decrease. However, the vast majority of these fatalities were Shia Pakistanis, who accounted for 208 of the 272 fatalities (76%).