Why is Modi desperate to win Delhi state elections?

BJP has thrown in its ultra-extremist leadership ahead of Delhi State Elections on February 8 to beat the incumbent Aam Aadami Parry (AAP)-led government to save its sixth loss in state elections in just over a year’s time frame. Faced with the backlash from Kashmir annexation, citizenship laws, poor economy, BJP has again resorted to its ploy — blame Pakistan behind Citizenship protests in Delhi and elsewhere to beef up its prospects.

In desperation, Mr. Modi, his firebrand lieutenants, Home Minister Amit Shah and Chief Minister UP Yogi Adityanath have left their normal routines to address back to back election rallies in Delhi in last few days. The good performance of sitting Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is likely to win him another term and different polls are pointing to same outcome despite BJP onslaught.

Mr. Modi has blamed Delhi Chief Minister and his party for giving statements after the so-called “Surgical strike and Balakot air strike” to benefit Pakistan. He also blamed AAP and Congress of stoking Citizenship protests in Delhi to break India’s unity. Facing an imminent defeat on the development front in Delhi, BJP has turned to its favorite ploy of blaming Pakistan behind the protests in Delhi against Citizenship laws and make a desperate attempt to win votes. Mr. Amit Shah at a rally said, “What kind of slogans are being shouted in Shaheen Bagh? We want freedom, the Jinnah kind,” Shah also said, Kejriwal (Delhi chief minister) is speaking “Imran Khan’s language”. Yogi Adityanath the radical Chief Minister UP brought in specially to shore up BJP chances took Pakistan name eight times in 48 seconds in his speech blaming it on different issues. BJP extremism is also on full display in Delhi elections and in one of his speeches, Yogi Adityanath threatened Citizenship protestors saying, “ If someone does not listen to reason, then bullets will work”. All BJP leaders are extremely critical of the Citizenship law protests in those parts of Delhi which have Muslim majority population.

BJP is using all ploys to ward off its third defeat in State Elections since national elections in April 2019 . After a victory in national elections, annexation of Kashmir on Aug 5th, Babri Mosque verdict in its favor and the Hindutva favoring Citizenship laws, BJP expected a windfall in the state election. First shock came in Haryana where BJP vote share in comparison to national elections in April, 2019 fell from 59% to 36% in the October state elections in Haryana. BJP narrowly made a coalition government in Haryana after heavy compromises. BJP was not so lucky in one of India’s biggest states Maharashtra and lost chief minister slot to Congress Shiv Sena coalition after a nearly 10% drop in its votes as compared to national elections. In Jharkhand state elections in December 2019, BJP suffered a humiliating defeat with its vote bank decreasing to 33% from national election’s level of 51%. A Jharkhand based party and Congress coalition ousted BJP from Chief Minister slot in Jharkhand. The divisive and extremist Hindutva politics of BJP has seemingly fired back in a secular India and BJP seems on course for a 3rd humiliating defeat in a State election after national elections in Delhi. Earlier in December 2018, BJP had lost three state elections.

After the dismal show in state elections in last one year, BJP’s electoral footprint has now shrunk to half of its peak level of 71% in March 2018. On the economic front, IMF has blamed India slowing economy for global slowdown. Rahul Gandhi claims India’s actual GDP growth is 2.5% instead of 4.5% which Modi government claims and has fallen sharply over a year. The unemployment rate is at 45 years low and the Indian banks are facing a huge default crisis besides slowdown in manufacturing and consumption.

Another reason for the extra focus on the capital Delhi elections is the international fall out of another loss showing the Prime Minister’s fast depleting political clout. American President is due in Delhi later in February and there are huge protests in the capital against Citizenship laws. India and USA are due to negotiate a new agreement on Tariffs. Later Mr. Modi will travel to Brussels for the India EU summit in mid-March in which a Free Trade Agreement is to be discussed. Mr. Modi also has to fight off a Resolution in European Parliament later in March by six out of eight political groups against Citizenship laws. And the Resolution in US Congress against human rights abuse in Kashmir is also likely to come up for voting around the same time. The bipartisan resolution is now supported by 49 members of House of Representatives of US Congress. Mr. Modi is under attack from major Human Rights organizations and global media for the treatment of Kashmiris and its unilateral annexation. Different heads of state and governments have called on Mr. Modi to restore Kashmiri’s basic human rights and the issue has been discussed twice at UN Security Council as well.

February 11, the day Delhi Election results will be announced is eagerly awaited by political pundits in the region and across the globe for its impact on the BJP expansionist and extremist agenda for India and the region.