Populists eye victory in deeply divided Poland

WARSAW: Poles voted on Sunday in an election the governing populists look set to win thanks to a raft of welfare measures coupled and attacks on HR rights and western values in the heavily Catholic country, but their majority could be at risk.

In office since 2015 and led by ex-premier Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party has focused on poorer rural voters, coupling family values with a popular new child allowance, tax breaks for low-income earners and hikes to pensions and the minimum wage.

Widely regarded as Poland’s de facto leader, Kaczynski has also stoked deep social division by attacking sexual minorities and rejecting Western liberal values, all with the tacit blessing of Poland’s influential Catholic Church which holds sway over rural voters.

"The PiS is finally taking care of the weakest, most vulnerable members of society," Kasia, a 40-year-old psychologist working at a women’s shelter, told AFP after voting in Warsaw.

"I’ve seen it first hand at work," said the mother of one who declined to provide her surname. Kaczynski is among several populist leaders in the European Union favouring greater national sovereignty over the federalism championed by powerhouses France and Germany.

The PiS has sought favour with the Trump administration. Poland has long regarded the US as the primary guarantor of its security within the Natoalliance and as a bulwark against Russia, its Soviet-era master with whom tensions still run high.

"In foreign policy, the PiS is standing up for Poland, not just blindly agreeing to what Germany or France want," Michal, a 34-year-old Warsaw electrician said after voting.

Backed by outgoing EU Council President Donald Tusk -- from Poland and Kaczynski’s arch-rival on the domestic scene -- the opposition Civic Coalition (KO) draws mainly on urban voters upset by the PiS’s divisive politics, judicial reforms threatening the rule of law, graft scandals and monopolisation of public media.

"I voted for democracy, to safeguard the future of my grandchildren," Jadwiga Sperska, a 64-year-old working pensioner and KO supporter, said outside a Warsaw polling station.

"The current government’s direction could lead us out of the EU," she added. Condemning the anti-LGBT drive and close church ties, but sharing the PIS’s welfare goals, the left is set to return to parliament after a four-year hiatus.

"I support an open, tolerant society, without aggression and with same-sex unions," said Monika Pronkiewicz, a 31-year-old public sector worker and left-wing voter in Warsaw. Two separate opinion polls published on Friday suggested the PiS’s majority could be at risk as its support was on par with the combined score of three opposition groups -- the centrist KO, a leftist coalition and a farmers’ party.