What next in Kashmir?

So, India has effectively occupied Kashmir. The constitutional articles which protected Kashmir as a territory with semi-autonomous powers since the days before Partition and just after have been disdainfully thrown aside. The BJP is gloating; the Indian opposition is too weak to do more than stage token protests. On the streets too, while civil society activists have put up banners and staged marches, there is no visible impact on a determined and fascist Modi government. The use of propaganda in winning over people has also been well used through a now heavily biased Indian media within which no ideological or even humanitarian divides can be easily seen.

Pakistan has responded. Following a meeting of the National Security Council chaired by the prime minister and attended by key ministers and the army chief, it had been decided to expel the Indian envoy from Pakistan and to suspend trade with India. India will also no longer be allowed to transport goods into Afghanistan through the Wagah border — a factor that will undoubtedly hurt it. It is however unlikely to make it alter what it has already done in Kashmir, where harsh repression continues, former chief ministers remain under house arrest and more people continue to be injured or even killed in brutal action by the thousands of Indian troops now deployed in the area to prevent any protest. There is however question over how long they can remain posted there and there is a certainty that given Kashmir’s history of extraordinary bravery, protests will break out at some point, when it is possible for people to react to what has been done and the manner in which their state has been bifurcated into the union territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

What Pakistan needs is a response from the world. The UN Secretary General has for the moment said only that it is the fault of all partners that the present crisis has arisen. Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi has said that Pakistan will be approaching the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The UN had passed a resolution on Kashmir very soon after Partition, but 70 years later that has still to be acted on. Ironically enough, that resolution seeking a plebiscite in Kashmir was moved by the then Indian prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru. Pakistan essentially needs to galvanise international efforts. India’s insistence that Kashmir is a bilateral issue allows it to act as a bully against Pakistan. Pakistan needs nations, preferably the most powerful ones, who will stand behind it. The UN has so far said very little beyond what is formally expected. The same is true of Pakistan’s key ally, China, while Saudi Arabia has been mainly silent. The same is true of other Arab states, some of whom have backed India. Pakistan has not been helped by the gradual erosion of strong allies over the years and the current place of isolation in which it stands.

It is crucial that at this moment, words are carefully chosen. The affair has to be sorted out through negotiation which also involves the Kashmiris. Professionals and those with experience in diplomacy need to be brought to the forefront. PM Imran has set up a committee, but it would be best if the Foreign Office and its minister were allowed to step to the forefront and work with the committee to determine what steps Pakistan needs to take and how best the Kashmiris can be helped out of the crisis they currently face.