No time for peace?

Something considered remotely possible only a few days back is already here. India acted first, by brazenly violating Pakistan’s airspace and claiming death and destruction in a fictional terror camp.

India went on to boast about its aggression, thereby provoking Pakistan to retaliate. The PAF’s riposte came the very next day, resulting in the shooting of two enemy fighter planes. Alarmed by these developments, the international community has appealed to both the countries to work for de-escalation and avoid a bigger conflict.

It remains to be seen whether these appeals will be heeded, especially in India where Narendra Modi is focused on heightening tensions with Pakistan to secure another five-year term. The latest state elections and Lok Sabha by-polls show that Modi is losing popularity as the general elections come closer. As the clock ticks, Modi’s body language is that of a worried man.

Ever since the BJP rose to power in 2014, it has relentlessly pursued policies of hate and intimidation toward Pakistan. This was linked to a larger agenda of hatred for the Muslims in India in general and for those in Kashmir in particular. Acting more like some foreign rulers, Narendra Modi and his associates aimed at dividing the Indian people on the lines of caste and creed. Although they called it Hindutva, a large segment was left on the margins because of issues of low and high castes in India.

Muslims, whether descendants of the invading armies or those who may have converted to Islam, became the primary target of (Hindu) purification. Kashmiri Muslims would soon come to bear the brunt of Hindutva wrath as they rejected Indian occupation and struggled for freedom. In short, Muslims in general, and Kashmiris in particular, were to be sorted out. And of course Pakistan, which is a big thorn in India’s hold of the Subcontinent and which supports the Kashmiri cause, had to be shunned bilaterally and isolated internationally.

As time passed, the BJP’s tactics for Kashmir became more draconian. The Kashmiri Muslims were subdued by all means of repression and coercion. Equally worrying are the efforts to change Article 370 of India’s constitution, which grants a special autonomous status to Jammu and Kashmir, and Article 35-A, which restricts non-Kashmiris’ right to property in the disputed territory. The BJP muscled its way into the coalition led by Mehbooba Mufti in Indian-held Kashmir but brought it down to impose governor’s rule when her party rejected the constitutional amendments proposed by the BJP leadership.

The Indian security forces were given the licence to kill, maim and rape at will, leading to greater alienation from India with more young Kashmiris embracing resistance to the occupation. Sane voices within India called upon the Modi government to stop this madness but to no avail. A report by the UN testified to the gross violations of human rights in the occupied territory.

The BJP’s strategists believe that a hard-line approach towards Kashmir and repression of minorities in India will lock the Hindu vote for them in the coming election. To be doubly sure, tensions with Pakistan must be kept high – and what better way of doing that than holding Pakistan responsible for terrorism in Kashmir? The attack on Indian security personnel in Pulwama was immediately attributed to the JeM in Pakistan without proof.

Measures like recalling India’s high commissioner from Islamabad, revoking Pakistan’s MFN status, and favourable statements obtained from Washington and Kabul pointed to a choreography prepared in advance. If Pakistan was no longer the ‘epicenter’ of terrorism, it was blamed for being its ‘nerve centre’. Official India and its media partners fulminate over how to punish Pakistan and isolate it in regional and global forums. Sporting and cultural links are further reduced as hate-mongering assumes a higher pitch.

Not everyone is fooled. Listen to Mehbooba Mufti, Farooq Abdullah, Rahul Gandhi or Yashwant Sinha to feel the level of despondency prevailing from Srinagar to New Delhi. And watch Modi’s response of mass arrests and sending ten thousand more security forces to a Kashmir that is already the world’s most militarised area. Unnamed Indian officials warn the Kashmiri Muslims of greater brutalisation.

In an opinion column in ‘The Indian Express’, Pratap Bhanu Mehta wrote that the situation represented a victory for Pakistan because “the radicalization in Kashmir is real and the alienation pervasive…in the last five years we made the situation in Kashmir far worse…the fragile and uncertain gains in Kashmir of the Atal Behari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh years have been squandered away in an illusory bravado”. He added that “the chest thumping Indian politicians can seldom win peace”.

Peace is not a priority for the BJP or its RSS minders. Calls from the international community and appeals from sane voices within India have failed to move the BJP/RSS planners who firmly believe that communalism and anti-Pakistan war hysteria can lead to another electoral victory. It was not surprising that, rather than expressing grief and looking into intelligence failures, New Delhi launched another round of propaganda war against Pakistan.

There is a crucial question to reflect upon. Can Modi afford to bring down tensions with Pakistan in the run-up to the election, and expose himself to be judged on his government’s performance alone? Events of the past few days reveal his plan to whip up war hysteria and even take limited aggressive actions against Pakistan. A swift response by the PAF shows that Pakistan will unreservedly exercise its right to retaliate as cautioned by Pakistan’s political and military leadership. Being the bigger power, India is in the habit of spurning Pakistan’s offers of negotiations; so Prime Minister Imran Khan’s call for restraint and dialogue may not get traction across the border.

Email: saeed.saeedk@gmail.com