Imran’s popularity on test in KP today

The local bodies elections in Kyber-Pakhtoonkhwa today pose the biggest challenge for Imran Khan and the 2-year performance of his party’s government in the province. This is also a big challenge for the mainstream political parties to regain their lost ground in what appears to be the biggest electoral battle since 2013 general elections. Major setback can create problems for PTI and its coalition partner, Jamaat-e-Islami, JI.PTI, which has not performed well in some of the by-elections or even in the recently held Cantonment Board elections, is hoping for landslide.
These polls will be followed by local bodies elections in Punjab in September/October and later on in Sindh. All this has become possible because of the Supreme Court of Pakistan, though it is the constitutional obligation of the government hold LBs polls within six months of the four-year’s term. But all governments, the civilian governments in particular, have dithered in holding census (last held in 1998) or local bodies elections.
It is also for the first time that party-based elections are being held at municipal level, though in KPK it is both non-party as well as party-based elections, which has made the exercise rather confusing for the common people.
Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), which has strong a government at the Centre, also has high stakes in today’s polls and needs major success for two reasons; (1) it want to defeat PTI on its home ground and (2) it wants to regain its position in the province.
Imran Khan and PTI are lucky that elections are not being held in all the four provinces simultaneously, as this could have put Imran Khan under more pressure, particularly in the Punjab. Thus, he and his party got enough time in KPK to launch a few development schemes before polls and by and large his government’s performance in the province remains satisfactory except internal party rifts.
If PTI sweeps today’s polls it will be in a much stronger position to launch a movement for the general elections provided Judicial Commission recommends the same and much now depend on thereopening of “voting bags.”Jamaat-e-Islami, as a junior partner, has also madeinroads in the KPK since 2002 elections, thanks toaggressive politics of former JI Ameer Qazi Hussain Ahmad.
From 2002 to 2007, JI was a coalition partner of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam under the banner of Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). Later it joined hands with Imran Khan after 2008 elections, which both parties had boycotted. Pashtoon nationalist
Awami National Party (ANP) formed the government in KPK in 2008, but facedstrong opposition from PTI in particular. Its performance was tainted with allegations of corruption and poor governance, though itschairman, Asfandyar Wali claimed that the party had brought revolutionin the field of education. However, ANP never got a level playingfield in the 2013 elections because of direct threats and attack fromTaliban. Many of its leaders, candidates and workers were targeted and it becameimpossible for them to hold rallies and public meetings. To bevery honest, this alone was reason enough to declare elections in KPKvoid, but it did not happen.In today’s local bodies elections ANP has a chance tobounce back and regain some of its lost position.An interesting scenario has emerged with JUI-F joining hands with ANP. JUI-F has suffered the most at the hands of PTI-JI. Maulana
Fazlur Rehman’s alliance with Asfandyar Wali should not surpriseany one. In the past, the two parties had ruled KPK (then NWFP) and Balochistan after the 1970 elections.Where does Pakistan Peoples Party, PPP, stand in today’s elections?
The party had once ruled KPK, but over the years it too has lost the confidence of the people. It now has a chance to improve its position, though odds areagainst it. Former President Asif Ali Zardari has recentlyvisited Peshawar to raise the morale of the party workers. PPP’sperformance in Baluchistan local bodies elections was the worst but if it does not perform well in today’s LBs elections it will cease to be a political force in the province.
But more than any thing else, it is a litmus test forPTI and JI, particularly Imran Khan’spopularity in KPK. To some extent the local bodies elections are theindicator of a party’s chances in the next general elections.With some 90,000 candidates in the field for over 43,000seats, the local bodies elections in KPK maydivert nation’s attention from issues like Ayan Ali and Axact, too. Itwill also be a launching pad for the next month’s elections inGilgit-Baltistan, which in the past had voted for PPP.
The writer is a senior analyst and columnist of GEO, The News and Jang.