NA-246 by-polls: A challenge for MQM

LAHORE: The by-polls in Karachi’s extremely sensitive National Assembly constituency 246 (NA-246), vacated due to the resignation of MQM’s Nabeel Gabol, will be held Thursday (today) — posing a challenge of sorts to the exiled Altaf Hussain and his lieutenants to keep their 105, 999-vote lead intact.
It goes without saying that the three-way battle being fought by MQM’s Kanwar Naveed Jameel, PTI’s Imran Ismail and Jamaat-e-Islami’s Rashid Naseem has all the potential to make MQM work very hard to keep its lead over the one hundred thousand vote benchmark, if it wins.
However, odds are heavily stacked against MQM’s chances of winning with a lead of over 100,000 votes, meaning thereby that a few drops of sweat might be seen rolling down Kanwar Naveed Jameel’s forehead till the Election Commission comes up with the results.
PTI’s Imran Ismail and Jamaat-e-Islami’s Rashid Naseem, of course, do not have that much at stake, because people expect MQM to win with a big margin and any dent in its 23-month old winning margin would certainly give birth to many questions regarding the popularity graph of Altaf Hussain and company, especially after the Rangers-led raid at the party headquarters during the second week of March 2015.
During the May 11, 2013 ballot exercise, famous PPP-turncoat Nabeel Ahmed Gabol had managed to muster support of 137,874 voters—courtesy MQM’s unmatched electoral prowess in this constituency since 1988.
The runner-up during the 2013 polling exercise was PTI’s novice Ahmed Sharjeel, who had gone home fairly pleased with 31,875 votes.
Sharjeel’s performance had surprised many political pundits, who were stunned to realize that even localities around the MQM’s Nine Zero Azizabad Headquarters had silent anti-Altaf or pro-PTI voters in such a large number—something extremely heartening for Imran Ismail to keep fighting till the very end.
By the way, JI’s Rashid Naseem has earlier lost three elections on this seat since 2002, but still hasn’t lost hopes. The number of registered voters in NA-246 during May 2013 was 358,618.
The MQM had won this particular seat thrice in the four general elections between 1988 and 1997. We can all recall that Altaf Hussain’s party had not taken part in the 1993 National Assembly elections.
During the general elections of February 18, 2008, Sufyan Yousuf of MQM had won the day’s honour by getting 186,933 votes. The number of registered voters during February 2008 was 310,045.
Sohail Ansari of Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians had finished second. He could pocket 6,741 votes only.During the general elections of October 10, 2002, Haji Aziz Ullah Brohi of MQM had emerged triumphant by winning the nod of 53,134 voters.
The MQM, however, had sought his resignation in 2004 and had then given the party ticket to Nisar Panhwar in the by-election.While Haji Azizullah had originally hailed from Jacobabad, Nisar Panhwar was Sindhi-speaking too.
The runner-up this time was Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA)’s Rasheed Naseem, who could succeed in garnering support of 32,879 voters only.The number of registered voters in NA-246 during October 2002 was 261,736.
The part of the NA-246 constituency that includes the MQM headquarters, was called NA-187 till 1997 when the city used to have 13 National Assembly seats only and not 20, as is the case now. The current NA-246 Constituency also has numerous localities of NA-188 embedded in it.
Constituency NA-187 was twice represented by the later MQM stalwart Imran Farooq in 1988 and 1990. Imran had won 93,499 votes in 1988 and his nearest rival was JI’s Muzaffar Hashmi with just 12,125 votes.
In 1990, Imran Farooq, contesting under the banner of Haq Parast Group, had won 111,340 votes. His nearest rival was Hussain Abbas Zaidi of Pakistan Democratic Alliance (PDA) with just 3,487 votes.
The Benazir Bhutto-led Pakistan People’s Party was a major member of the PDA then.
Dr Imran Farooq’s father, Farooq Ahmed, had won the 1997 elections by bagging 62,621 votes. His nearest rival was Hafiz Taqi of PML-N, who could get 11,220 votes only.
Some other areas constituting NA-246 presently, used to fall in NA-188, where MQM’s SM Aslam had emerged victorious in 1988 (131,012 votes) and 1990 (142,591 votes), while one of Altaf’s trusted aides Hasan Musanna Alvi had won the 1997 battle by securing 105,323 votes against his closest rival Anwar Azeem Khan’s tally of just 13,276 votes. Anwar Azeem was representing the PML-N at that time.
In 1993, the two seats were won by Hafiz Mohammad Taqi of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (9,863 votes only in an election with a 9.2 per cent turnout only in whole of NA-187 due to MQM boycott) and Jamaat-e-Islami’s Muzaffar Hashmi (12,235 votes only in an election with an 8.8 per cent turnout only in whole of NA-188 due to MQM boycott).
The constituency was represented by Jamaat-e-Islami’s lynchpin Professor Ghafoor Ahmed in the 1970, when it was called NW 132 Karachi V. Professor Ghafoor had got 39,878 votes. Karachi only used to have seven National Assembly seats in 1970.
During the 1977 general elections, Professor Ghafoor had bagged 55,139 votes from NA-186 Karachi 4 — which now has most of its localities embedded in NA-246.
Usman Ramz, another local JI leader, had called shots during the 1985 non-party elections by getting 23,961 votes from NA-187 Karachi West 4 — which now has most of its localities constituting the present day NA-246.
In 1985, Karachi used to have 13 National Assembly seats.