Karachi Even though the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) has a large support base in the majority of Urdu-speaking population, a strong organisational support along with its headquarters, and a strong track record of winning the National Assembly seat by great margins since 1988, political analysts while talking to The News conceded that the party faces a tough battle ahead on the by-election on NA-246. The constituency covers a large area with Liaquatabad and Azizabad areas in its heart, with 82 percent of the residents belonging to Urdu-speaking community. Besides a significant Shia vote bank, there are also Ismaili and Memon communities whose hearts need to be won. The areas under its ambit include several blocks of FB Area, Moosa Colony, Bhangoria Goth, Gulshan-e-Shamim, Al-Azam Square, Sharifabad, Gharibabad, Bundhani Colony and Yaseenabad. “It is purely an Urdu-speakers’ majority area and it is very easy for the MQM to win on this seat,” said a political science teacher who lives in the area. “The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) does have mass support, but it lacks an organisational structure at the grass root level, which the MQM and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) have.” His analysis about the PTI was corroborated by residents who had voted for the party in the 2013 election. They complained that even though they voted for PTI, they hadn’t seen any party structure on ground for the past two years. Shia, Memon vote banks The constituency also has a significant vote bank of members of the Shia community and religious parties and leaders these days are busy augmenting and expecting their support. Asif Mosvi, the information secretary for Karachi of the Majlis-e-Wahdat Muslimeen (MWM), a key Shia political party, confirmed that his party leadership was being continuously approached by the political contestants. “We have a vote bank of about 20,000 people in NA-246,” said Mosvi. “But we haven’t yet decided on the party we will support.” The MWM emerged as a key player in the last general election and gathered significant number of votes from a number of areas dominated by the Shia community in the city. Political observers went as far as to say that in the last general election, the MWM also cut in the MQM’s vote bank in NA-246. Meanwhile, the presence of Ismaili and Memon communities residing in Karimabad, Hussainabad and localities of FB Area, is also of important. Both communities had largely voted for the PTI in the 2013 general election. The PTI leaders claim that the party will still get votes from the Ismaili and Memon communities in the by-election, but whether they are right or wrong, will be seen on April 23.
Cutting ethnic corners In an attempt to consolidate the Urdu-speaking vote bank with other communities who reside in the area, the MQM — for the last two elections — has been fielding candidates who don’t belong to the ‘Mohajir’ community. In 2002, the party awarded the National Assembly ticket to Azizullah Brohi, a Sindhi-speaking candidate from Jacobabad district. Brohi, a retired police officer, was elected as union council nazim in his native district in the 2001 local bodies elections. He resigned from his seat to come to Karachi and contest the 2002 general election from NA-246, from where he won by 53,134 votes out of total 97,128 votes. When Brohi resigned from the seat, the MQM fielded another Sindhi candidate, Nisar Ahmed Panhwar, for the by-election. Then in the 2013 election, the National Assembly ticket went to Nabeel Gabol, who had a falling out with the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Gabol also contested the election from NA-248 Lyari but lost this seat to the PPP’s Shah Jahan Baloch. However, he succeeded from NA-246 on an MQM ticket by bagging 137,874 votes. Qaiser Mehmood, a Karachi-based veteran journalist who has extensively covered politics in the city, said the NA-246 is considered to be an MQM stronghold, where any non-Urdu-speaking candidate has won only with the party’s backing. “By fielding non-Mohajir candidates on this seat the MQM has been trying to portray itself as a national party rather than a regional party,” he believed. For the upcoming by-election, insiders told The News that the MQM had been mulling over awarding the ticket to a Pashtun candidate, Aslam Afridi. His nomination papers for the by-poll had been submitted and also accepted by the Election Commission of Pakistan. However, the game turned on its head after the Nine-Zero raid in which senior leader Amir Khan was arrested along with a number of other workers and activists of the party. The raid prompted the MQM to bring out its trump card, Kunwar Naveed Jamil, who is a former mayor of Hyderabad and has been a member of national and provincial assemblies in the past. “The selection of a senior and Urdu-speaking leader by the MQM to contest NA-246 shows that the party is under a lot of pressure,” remarked the editor of an Urdu daily.
MQM under pressure? The party leadership is confident that they will easily win the National Assembly seat. “We have been winning from this seat for the past 30 years. We are not threatened by the presence of any other party here,” said the MQM candidate, Kunwar Naveed Jamil. His confidence can prove be based on solid ground, if one were to believe the enthusiastic and die-hard supporters who are at present getting a lot of airtime, thanks to repeated visits of PTI leaders to the Jinnah Ground. However, analysts believe that the emergence of PTI as a strong contender has created hurdles for the MQM. “Muttahida is losing its vote bank. In fact, the PTI now has the support of young voters from the constituency, who had previously remained apolitical,” opined Mehmood.
