Kashmir and the BJP

The BJP’s resignation from the coalition government in Indian-occupied Kashmir was on the cards. Its three-year alliance with the People’s Democratic Party was always shaky since the BJP is committed to the occupation and enforcing it through the most brutal means possible while the PDP favours a slightly more conciliatory approach, including holding peace talks with freedom groups and Pakistan. Still, for the split to happen now does not augur well for the future prospects of peace in Kashmir. Just two weeks back, senior Kashmiri journalist Shujaat Bukhari was gunned down by unidentified assailants and the UN has called for an investigation into human rights abuses in Indian-occupied Kashmir. Now, with the split having forced the resignation of Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti, Kashmir is governor’s rule. This gives the BJP the power to hand even more power over to security forces and to direct them to take greater punitive action against those resisting the occupation. There may then be an uptick in state-sanctioned violence and retaliation from rebels. We already got a taste of it this last Friday when six people were killed in a gun battle between the police and rebel groups in Anantnag. Now the BJP will be unshackled and we can expect it to increase the use of pellet guns against protestors armed only with sticks and stones.

Domestically, the BJP’s decision seems to have been made with an eye on the 2019 elections. The entire electoral strategy of the Modi government has been to whip up hatred against minority communities – particularly Muslims – to shore up its hardline Hindutva base. That strategy paid dividends in the 2014 elections and the BJP will double down on it next year. The chances of the PDP forming a coalition government in Kashmir are small since it will require the support of both Congress and the National Conference’s Omar Abdullah. It is frightening to consider just how much more blood will be spilled by Indian forces in Kashmir should governor’s rule persist for more than a year. Censorship of newspapers, blockages of mobile phone signals and internet shutdowns are likely to increase. This will only fuel anger among Kashmir’s beleaguered citizens. The chance of a dialogue, either between the Indian government and those resisting the occupation or between India and Pakistan, are now virtually nil. As frightening as the toxic nationalism of the BJP always has been, it is now about to get a whole lot worse.