Desperate times

There is too much desperation in the air. It is hard to find an actor who is not gripped by the fear of the unknown, and feeling desperate as a result. Even those who are tasked with the mediation have jumped into the fray, becoming a part of the problem, rather than the solution. It is this contagion, the rot from above, that makes 2018 so different from 2013.

The 2013 election was a moment to celebrate. For the first time in the nation’s history, power was transferred from one democratically elected government to another. There was optimism in the air, even though Pakistan had been through some of the worst years of its history. Within a span of five years, Pakistan had faced two historic natural calamities, unprecedented rise in international oil prices and unabated terrorism. Though the PPP government had been able to bring down inflation from 25 percent to less than 10 percent, the rise in prices had crushed people’s ability to buy essential goods. Yet it was a moment of optimism. The opposition had successfully tied all these problems to the person of Asif Ali Zardari and he was on his way out.

Both optimism and pessimism are contagious and infect the economy fast. Soon after the elections, Pakistan’s stock market skyrocketed; then real estate followed suit. A favourable international climate and falling oil prices provided a huge relief to the people. Inflation remained within reasonable limits and growth picked up. Pakistan’s ranking in the World Happiness Report improved from 81 in 2013 to 75 in 2018, making it the happiest country in South Asia. Pakistan also improved its ranking on the Corruption Perception Index from 130 in 2012 to 117 in 2017. As 11,000 megawatts of less expensive electricity were added to the national grid, it appeared the country was ready to soar on the wings of new opportunities, particularly CPEC.

Perhaps the best thing during the last five years was the healthy competition between the provincial governments, empowered and enriched through the 18th Amendment. As the demand for delivery shifted from the federal government to the provinces, people in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa benefitted from the rivalry between two governing parties. Sindh too shook off its sedated state in mid 2016, when the PPP picked a more dynamic and hardworking chief minister, Syed Murad Ali Shah.

Governments in both Punjab and KP tried to curb patronage-based politics and made an effort to impress their voters through improved governance and direct delivery of services. The Shahbaz style of government was not good for democracy. He ignored the Punjab Assembly more than his brother ignored the national parliament. However, his government did wonders in state buildings and empowering what we know as Weberian bureaucracy. It was after decades that the civil service in the province became meritocratic and its ability to deliver services increased manifold.

Perhaps, it is the first time since the 1960s that many district coordination officers (DCOs, formerly deputy commissioners) don’t even serve tea to elected representatives, and parliamentarians find it almost impossible to have them transferred. That does not mean that clientelist politics has been thrown out of the window. However, the balance between state delivery and politics of patronage has improved substantially.

It was a clever move that made political sense. The size of government has shrunk considerably – relative to the rising demographics, education levels and business sector. It is very hard to satisfy the electorate through the 1990s style of patronage. As an Urdu proverb puts it, there are a hundred sick persons seeking the single elusive pomegranate. It is better to allocate it through some transparent mechanism, rather than having 99 angry left-outs. It is also more logical to satisfy the electorate directly through delivering public goods.

The KP government also tried to follow suit – though with a lot of fanfare, claiming the discovery of fire and invention of the wheel. Unfortunately, it tripped and fell while copying the project they maligned the most, the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) aka the Metro Bus. Though a thorough comparison of the performance of the two governments will take some time, it is hard to disagree that both provinces have improved from the 2013 baseline.

The contagion of pessimism and desperation is located in the class that has benefitted the most from the turnaround – the urban middle class. Like always, democracy is under threat from this class and the institutions manned by its members. Comprising barely 20 percent of the nation’s population, this class is not willing to share the spoils with the rabble. As Fukuyama said somewhere, or should have said somewhere, democracy remains under threat till the middle class remains a minority in a state.

No one believes that democracy will benefit hugely from continuity in 2018. It may and it may not; too much desperation has seeped into the system. It is easy to understand why the PML-N is desperate. It has voters, it has the government and yet it may lose everything. Had Nawaz Sharif been as unpopular as Zardari was in 2013, things would have been much simpler. He remains popular and he has decided to go down fighting.

That’s what makes Imran Khan so desperate. It is not without reason that he is clutching at Amir Liaquats and trying to use arsenal left half used by Maulvi Khadim Hussain Rizvi. As numbers appear out of reach, he wants to add more virulence to his online brigade. His followers must be able to bully and silence those who disagree with him or try to create any hurdle in his march to glory. Put a compromised Zardari in the formula and he can still be the king. His sidekick, Sheikh Rashid, wants a judicial martial law as road roller.

The PPP is desperate because it has been confined to Sindh – and even Sindh may be in danger if winds from Balochistan reach there. The party is lost in the wilderness and may not be able to find its way out with the outdated maps of reality.

These are desperate times for religious parties as well. First, their voters were stolen by the mainstream parties. The PTI has almost finished the work started by the PML-N three decades ago. If that was not enough, new religious entities have emerged and are eating into the core of the established religious parties. Unlike the promising years of the Musharraf era, the revival of the MMA is an act of desperation.

The transfer from one system to another is a revolutionary moment. We had that moment in 2008, for the third time in our history. Such shifts are not simply events, but duality of events that launch them and the process that seeks to complete them. A dialectical relationship between event and process is involved. In the process, participants argue to define the change and adjust their boundaries.

As the process of negotiation appears to be failing once again, it is not hard to imagine that we are in for rough times once again. Losing a decade or two again is not great news for the people of my generation who are barely left with a decade or two of life on this planet. And being conscious of the desperation can make you even more desperate. According to Kierkegaard, the first existentialist philosopher, “being conscious increases the level of desperation, because one is conscious about his own desperation, which is even worse than being purely desperate.” Perhaps, it is better to adopt a willing suspension of disbelief and follow a messiah. If you are young, you have the luxury of following a mirage or two.

The writer is an anthropologist and development professional.

Email: zaighamkhan@yahoo.com

Twitter: @zaighamkhan