Quick victory against IS unlikely in Egypt: analysts

CAIRO: Egypt´s military is conducting a sweeping assault to crush a resilient Islamic State branch in Sinai, but the jihadist group is unlikely to be vanquished quickly, analysts say.

The operation was launched on February 9 after President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who is expected to sweep to a second term in polls next week, gave the armed forces and police a three-month deadline in November to wipe out the jihadists.

The deadline has since been extended, and the armed forces launched their most comprehensive campaign yet to end the five-year-old jihadist insurgency.

The military gives regular updates on the operation, saying it has killed more than 100 jihadists so far while losing at least 20 troops. “Egypt is doing a really good job controlling the narrative,” said Zack Gold, an analyst with the US-based CNA research group.

“Even ISIS has been challenged to put out statements. This suggests Egypt is in control,” he said, using an alternative name for IS. “But (it) makes it hard to assess what´s really going on and whether long term impact will be different.” Egypt had already launched several operations against jihadists in the Sinai Peninsula, who have killed hundreds of soldiers and policemen.

The Egyptian Ansar Beit al-Maqdis group pledged allegiance to IS in 2014, gaining expertise and logistical support from the international group, which controlled a self-declared “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria.

The Sinai jihadists soon ramped up their attacks on civilians, planting a bomb on a Russian airliner carrying holidaymakers from a south Sinai resort in 2015, killing all 224 people on board.

Starting in late 2016, they also began targeting Christians, killing more than a hundred in church bombings and shootings across the country.

Sisi´s ultimatum came after suspected IS gunmen massacred more than 300 worshippers in a Sinai mosque associated with Sufi Muslims, seen by IS as heretics.

“There appears to be greater emphasis on actively targeting individual militants alongside degrading their logistical supply,” wrote EgyGreenfly, an anonymous blogger for Egypt Defence Review.

“Whereas previous Egyptian offensives focused on a particular area independent of the others at any one time, ´Sinai 18´ appears to have finally coordinated efforts across the country.”

The military has said about 60,000 soldiers are taking part in the campaign, launched after a period of intelligence-gathering in the peninsula, which borders Israel and the Palestinian Gaza Strip.