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Friday March 29, 2024

The return of Sharif

By Shahzad Chaudhry
February 08, 2018

It is only in the political sense – till now – but if this is how it may keep we will soon be handing it out to Nawaz Sharif, lock, stock and barrel. Such a statement upsets many in the media and in politics who had made it their business to spell his end, but they were taken in by their own rhetoric not to notice the path Nawaz was carving of his return to the centre-stage.

Nawaz has not bitten the dust. And the rest of Pakistan better wake up to this. A week is a long time in politics they say, and tomorrow may spell differently, but the way Nawaz Sharif, his daughter and their team have played the game till now, not handing it to them would be crass unfair.

Let’s see what was to happen post July 28 last year, and which did not. Nawaz Sharif, rather than choose an early sunset, was egged on to fight his indictment and disqualification by the Supreme Court. His daughter and many cohorts asked him to stay in the fight. Not that he hadn’t erred – of that there is little doubt – but, reading the ground and the state of play, they may have felt this can be turned around. And they did turn it around in a counter-offensive which picked on the entire gamut of state institutions. They have targeted all and at will, fully exploiting the self-imposed restraint by the army and the judiciary to not react to allegations, some fairly severe, for fear of being labelled anti-democracy.

The space ceded by Nawaz’s ouster, which should have been used by his political opponents, lay abegging while he in turn manipulated to his advantage the space that came by his way through institutional stand-off. What else helped him was the fact that it still was very much his own party in power in the centre, which spared him the fear of being administratively arraigned before the law. Rather, the government – his government – added to his voice of being wronged through overt verbal support by cabinet members who fought Nawaz’s corner in the media. This space, ceded by reluctant institutions, has been skilfully exploited by Nawaz Sharif and his supporters in the PML-N. The tables have been turned.

That the Sharifs have no cogent answer to the many queries raised regarding their conduct nor any proof regarding their wealth abroad is liable to still poignantly haunt them even as they battle for their last hurrah in public perception. Their other battle goes on unabated in the courts and the consequences of those can be telling on their future course. But that is yet to be played out and in the time and space which has become available to them the PML-N has played superbly. Unless the courts come in the way, the Sharifs are on their home-lap.

Politics is the art of the possible, pregnant with numerous probabilities. Imagine: the PML-N carries the election with only a slight adjustment in the number of seats in the National Assembly. Built on solid public support, which continues to populate their political assemblies across Punjab and even Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, they are able to infuse an impression of having been wronged by the institutions; initially the military and when that was questioned by some in the party then the Judiciary. In between they don’t shy away from conflating the two in an assertion of conspiracy, using historical precedent in support of their argument. That such rendition is both selective and opportunist doesn’t stem their intensity to cry foul even if it may be factually incorrect. But since that is the only narrative being pedalled across the country, it is the one that is trekking the imagination of the people. There is simply no competing argument despite the very precarious legal and moral predicament of the Sharifs. That is where ‘someone’ has failed.

Such absence of a concerted response built around an evolving message and hard, solid constituency work in the space opened up by Nawaz’s disqualification has forced Imran Khan in a lag. He hasn’t moved beyond the mantra of corruption, which was good enough to oust Nawaz and after that was achieved only seems jaded and frivolous especially when Nawaz has honed his message to suit the times. And that is a telling failure. Going by IK’s political guru Shaikh Rashid’s pronouncements, “In politics, timing is everything (that matters)”. Miss the moment, miss the crown. While the moment may be slipping away, IK must get his act together to beat the lag hauntingly emphasised by IK’s absence even as Nawaz traverses the country.

If indeed this is how matters proceed, the initial public perception of the wrong committed by the Sharifs may stand neutralised and the Sharifs vindicated in the face of such singular public support in the political arena. The voters may be smart but no one is wooing them away from Nawaz’s corner where there continue to be material return for loyalty. This has created a chimera of a momentum in Nawaz’s favour which can only be reversed by more damaging court verdicts, or a doubling down on effort by the competition.

The PML-N has held and hasn’t fragmented; Nawaz Sharif remains in a position of greatest eminence; and Maryam Nawaz has established herself squarely as the only heir apparent to the throne even if Nawaz were to be held back by law if not the times. Shahbaz Sharif has quietly vacated any pretensions and his sons are nowhere to be seen. The branch of the family that retains hold over all politics continues to be firmly held by Nawaz’s stream. Nawaz Sharif asked the people in Peshawar to vote in great numbers for him so that he could overturn his conviction and change laws and the constitution to reinstate himself in power after a likely lifetime disqualification under existing laws. He has also effectively used the idea of democracy to seek enhanced protection against any checks and balance provisioned under law. He is however known to nurse ambitions to wield unchecked authority, what may amount to mimic electoral fascism failing the test of rule of law at conception. No system or structure will survive such unbridled power.

But this is just one outcome. Were this to fail as a strategy and were the courts to convict him, NS has no fallback option. Maryam too could be disqualified from contesting elections for a period as a consequence of the legal proceedings. What may then haunt the PML-N will be the absence of a credible alternate to the father-daughter duo. That may leave the PML-N weaker and fragmented as elections beckon. The popular mandate in which case in all likelihood will be divided, leaving either the possibility of a minority government which will only perpetuate instability, or a resort to a coalition government with its own attendant frailties. Imran Khan just might be ruing lost opportunities even as Pakistan continues to be embroiled in continuing uncertainty.

Email: shhzdchdhry@yahoo.com