Deadlocks and delays

Another week of PPP U-turns has thrown the timing of the next elections into jeopardy. Just when it seemed an agreement had finally been reached by the government and the PPP to pass the constitutional amendment that would allow the 2018 elections to be held on the basis of this year’s census, the opposition party once again reneged. The problem is not that the PPP is opposed to – in theory at least – the idea of delimitation of electoral constituencies being carried out using the 2017 census. Rather, it is that the party does not accept the results of the census itself.

The PML-N government has agreed to the PPP’s demand that an independent commission be formed to re-verify five percent of the census results. Still the PPP keeps finding reasons to withdraw support for this essential constitutional amendment. First it demanded that the commission comprise demographers and statisticians rather than chartered accountants. Now it is calling for foreign experts to be appointed. By constantly shifting the goalposts, many feel there is an effort to make life difficult for the government and in doing so irresponsibly hurting democracy too. With every passing day, the possibility of holding elections on time becomes ever more remote.

The Election Commission of Pakistan says it will need at least five months to complete the process of delimitation. This government has a little over five months left in its tenure and the process must be completed by then. Ideally, the delimitation process would have been wrapped up by March or April so that the ECP had time to appoint returning officers and listen to any challenges. The PPP has made that an impossibility. No wonder some in the ruling party now believe this is a deliberate attempt to delay the polls. Interior Minister Ahsan Iqbal has theorised that a failure to pass the constitutional amendment would lead to an interim government serving longer than required so that the ECP could complete its work. But there is another possibility worth considering. If the Senate elections are held in March, the PML-N will hold a majority in both houses of parliament. Forcing early elections – held on the basis of the 1998 census – would hurt the PML-N even more than delayed elections. The PPP, which has always claimed to be, and been seen as, the country’s greatest defender of democracy, has to show that it will not abide by any disruption in the election schedule. The best way of doing that is by passing the constitutional amendment.