Had ex-PM sat back, his party might have been divided soon

It will be a different and more difficult political journey for former prime minister Nawaz Sharif since October 12, 1999, when he will travel by the GT Road to Lahore on Wednesday, in a bid to dispel the perception that his popularity graph has gone down after the Supreme Court’s 5-0 verdict on ‘Panama’, which disqualified him from parliamentary politics, apparently for life.

On Oct 12 1999, a military coup was staged by Gen Pervez Musharraf, hours after he sacked by Sharif as army chief. He dismissed his government without any legal authority. Sharif along with family and many party leaders was detained. What happened in those years is now part of history.

It took him almost 14 years to regain the office of PM for the record third time after elections in 2013, but once again lost power a year before completing his term, albeit in different circumstances.

This time round his government is well placed, Constitution is not put in abeyance and the Parliament is functional, but he was unseated and ousted as PM. There is no bar on his political activities, either. So how come this is more difficult journey for him than 1999.

Democracy is not something mere change of government after every five years through elections, as it is also a system to govern. It is true that the government is in place despite the change of chief executive but it certainly created uncertainty as well. The system also demands how the leaders should lead the nation from the front and set good precedence.

The latest developments sent negative waves of uncertainty because of our political history. It is different this time in many ways. Firstly, because he has been disqualified by Supreme Court in a famous ‘Panama case’, and unless the court accepts his review petition, which he is likely to file, he cannot contest any future election.

Secondly, it is more difficult because the problems for him and his family are not over yet and they will be facing the NAB references. Therefore, the former premier, showing resilience and defiance, has little choice but to prove his popularity through a show of strength to give a message to all those who matters that people have not accepted the verdict and are still with him. Whether he will be able to prove it or not is different matter.

There is no doubt that by taking route to Lahore, his hometown and the city from where he started his political career in 1984, Sharif is not only taking a political but also personal risk for himself and family. His decision to travel by road is a bid to restore his image, which has been badly dented as a result of this case, JIT and as a result of the final order. If he is unable to draw a massive crowd, it could cause colossal damage to his politics.

It may not be an easy journey for the PML-N either, which is still in power but apparently looked powerless without its leader. He will be travelling to Punjab, and as the party leaders revealed the plan, it looks like early election campaign for 2018.

The new journey is more challenging because he has not only been ousted from power but also from politics as well and it would not be easy for him to stage a comeback. The purpose is also to keep the party intact. Had he decided to sit back or isolated himself from active politics, chances were that the party would be divided too soon. So, Sharif doesn’t want to see the PML-N as a divided house, when elections are not too far. He has been successful in keeping it intact.

His new ideological credentials would also be on test and how much he would be able to muster people's support. Some of his critics feared that if he went too aggressive like Zulfikar Ali Bhutto did after he was ousted from power things can go from bad to worst. But, Sharif says he is ready to face the consequences and no one could stop him from reaching the masses.

He also knows that the NAB, under the supervision and guidance of a Supreme Court judge, would be finalising references against him, his scions and some other family members within weeks. These references once filed in a NAB court could lead to his arrest and Sharif wanted people's support behind him, in case such a situation arises.

Sharifs also want to block the possible entry of Imran Khan and PTI in his strong constituency, Punjab, which will determine who will form the next government after elections as Imran is confident of victory.

There is also a security element involved in today's politics. Though, a small incident but the visuals showed of a large number people gathering to welcome him was also the first alert for him.

Sharif and the PML-N have to be very careful as his government had taken the credit of launching operation against the militants during his four-year tenure and some outlawed groups had even earlier warned the ruling party.

Sharif, in his last address to the PML-N parliamentarians, said he had become an ideological person for the first time in the last 25 years. Without elaborating the term, his tone clearly indicated that he is in a defiant mood. He looked quite hurt and humiliated but managed to control his emotions.

His opponents – particularly PTI and its chairman Imran – have termed this political journey as a contempt to the Supreme Court verdict. They said by taking part in politics and presiding over the PML-N meeting, he has defied both judiciary and establishment.

However, the PTI would also be watching his journey with a lot of interest as they also know that a big reception for Sharif and his continued presence in Lahore would not only jolt their plan to cause upset in NA-120, Sharif's traditional seat since 1985, but also have an impact on the next general elections.

The PTI also knows that the PML-N would be in a comfortable position in the Senate in March next year, if the party remains intact till then.

For Sharif, this journey would determine whether he still enjoys popular support or not. Secondly, it would be a test for his party which so far looked intact and behind the former prime minister. Thirdly, he also wants to send a strong message to his opponents that his hometown, Lahore, is still with the PML-N.

The Supreme Court decision has hurt Sharif badly and he himself expressed it in a meeting when he said, "After I have done so much for Pakistan, I did not deserve this."

Thus, his new political journey would also be something more than mere politics. It is also to restore his and family's personal image.

What we are witnessing today and would see in weeks and months to come is a changed PML-n, unlike in the past. But the real test for the party and Sharifs is when they will face cases with a proactive NAB.

We are living in interesting times where the party and the leader, which always had the reputation of siding with the establishment and conspiring against democratic forces, is now talking of 'new social contract.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang  

Twitter: @MazhrAbbasGEO