Indian fantasies

The border disputes between India and China date back to the 1962 war when China took control of land which India still claims as its own. Despite sporadic talks since 1985 to settle the matter, the two countries have never been able to reach an agreement and it was inevitable that sooner or later there would be a standoff. The current dispute started when Bhutan, which has no diplomatic ties with China, complained to India that Chinese troops had arrived with bulldozers and excavators to construct a road in a disputed mountainous region that both countries claim. India responded by sending its own troops to try and evict the Chinese, with leaked footage showing soldiers from both countries pushing and shoving each other. China has now told India to withdraw its soldiers and not try to “push its luck”, saying it shouldn’t cling to the fantasy that China won’t respond. The border region may be the direct spark for this confrontation but there is a larger game at play. Both countries harbour the ambition of not just being the next regional superpower but a global one. Such posturing is meant to project that view. But ambition can quickly turn to hubris and neither country is in a mood to back down. Even if an outright declaration of war is only a distant possibility, the ramifications of the stand-off for the region could be far-reaching.

India feels threatened by China not as much by the disputed territory itself but because it is losing the diplomatic game. China’s relations with its neighbours are the closest they have ever been and India is worried that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the larger One Border, One Road initiative will leave it with virtually no allies in South and Central Asia. It will also miss out on the benefits of these projects. Its behaviour in this land dispute, where it is ready to risk military conflict over a small piece of land, is directly attributable to the precedents that might be set should India back down. First, it will show that China is the predominant power in the region and can unilaterally take action without needing the permission of India. Second, India has boxed itself into a position where it cannot ask for help from international organisations to mediate since it would no longer be able to credibly argue that the same standard shouldn’t apply to other disputed territories like Kashmir. The end result is an isolated India reduced to threats and machismo – something which puts the entire region in peril.