How China, India and Pakistan have shifted ‘doomsday clock’ forward

ISLAMABAD: At the end of 2015, the science and security board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists decided that “the undeniable threats to the continued existence of humanity” posed by the world’s nuclear arsenals had increased significantly since 2012. 

It changed the time on the symbolic doomsday clock to three minutes to midnight, a two-minute adjustment reflecting the board’s assessment that the chance of a nuclear conflict was at its highest since 1984, when relations between the US and the erstwhile Soviet Union were at a historical low. At the end of last year, the Bulletin upheld this worrisome assessment. 

A handful of missile tests in South Asia conducted over the past few weeks clearly suggest that the hands of the clock will not move in an assuring direction for the foreseeable future. 

On December 26, India conducted the first full-range test of its Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), confirming the success of its efforts to develop the capability to propel nuclear warheads to prospective targets within 5,000 km. 

India’s ICBMs have been specifically developed to match the nuclear-strike range of China, with which it fought a war in 1962 over a disputed border. China is closely allied with Pakistan, which has had numerous conflicts with India over the past 70 years. 

The Agni-V is now ready for trials by the Indian army’s strategic force command, after which it will be inducted into its operational arsenal. At that point, India will join the exclusive ICBM-operating club of nations, currently comprising the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. 

Before that, India would have made operational the Agni-IV, an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of striking targets within 4,000 km, or most of China. On January 2, the strategic force command conducted its third successful trial of the Agni-IV, paving the way for its serial production and induction into the military. 

Meanwhile, Pakistan on January 9 test-fired the first Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile, capable of delivering nuclear warheads some 450 km to land-based targets located in India. Pakistan was believed to be developing missiles for deployment on the eight Chinese Type 041 submarines it has ordered. They are scheduled for delivery in 2023 and 2028. 

The Babur-3 test suggests that Pakistan has acquired the capability by modifying the torpedo-launch system on its French-designed Agosta 90-B submarines that had previously been altered to accommodate US-supplied Harpoon anti-ship missiles. They only needed a minor upgrade for a cruise missile system. 

It also showed how Pakistan worked towards completing the triad of air - land- and sea-based delivery platforms for nuclear weapons. The trial was in response to India’s commissioning last August of the Arihant, its first nuclear-powered nuclear-armed submarine. 

Since 2010, the United States has actively promoted India’s membership of the four multilateral groupings that regulate the transfer of technologies with applications for weapons of mass destruction. The US argues that India has demonstrated it is a responsible nuclear-weapons state. As such, it should be granted waivers on key conditions, especially with regard to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). India won’t sign the treaty as it has been developing full-spectrum deterrence to China. 

In doing so, it will become a strategic counterweight to China, which the US and its Western allies have been trying to establish. They have demonstrated that they are prepared to bend the rules of nuclear non-proliferation where it serves their interests. 

Another example is India’s recent missile tests. The Indian media noted that the government had postponed the tests for a year or more to avoid diplomatic opposition to its membership application to Missile Technology Control Regime, a 34-nation group established to prevent the proliferation of missiles capable of carrying a 500-kg warhead more than 300 km. The group accepted India into its ranks in July last year.