PBS defends 2.68% GDP growth amid data controversy

ISLAMABAD: Chief Statistician Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Dr Naeemuz Zafar on Thursday defended the controversial GDP growth figure of 2.68 per cent estimated by the National Accounts Committee (NAC) and claimed that there would be no major revision in it.

However, he conceded that the livestock growth was calculated on the basis of the livestock census held in 2005-6, while the budgeted numbers were used to estimate growth in electricity sector.

During the news conference along with Minister for Planning Ahsan Iqbal here at P Block, the PBS chief statistician relied to different questions raised by journalists and stated that the growth numbers were estimated in line with best international standards placed by United Nations as well as the IMF. The quarterly growth figures were released. He said that the different surveys were underway to change base year from 2015-16 to 2025-26.

When asked about finance minister’s willingness to constitute a committee comprising independent experts, the chief statistician said that it would be the prerogative of the government but they were ready to defend their growth figures at any forum.

The GDP growth figures triggered controversy owing to variety of reasons as first of all in the agriculture sector where the major crops witnessed a decline by 13pc the livestock higher growth and turned negative growth into slight positive rate of growth of 0.56pc for overall agriculture sector.

Secondly, there were certain assumptions for the last quarter (April-June) for elevating the growth number as in the first three quarters the average growth rate remained at 1.7pc but a miracle can result into jacking up growth up to 5.3pc in the last quarter in order to achieve the growth rate of 2.68pc for the outgoing fiscal year.

Alone construction sector and electricity sector contributed 1pc hike to the growth rate and if exclude, the growth number would fall to 1.7pc instead of 2.7pc for the outgoing fiscal year. The construction sector showed impressive growth in papers on the basis of increased utilisation of funds under Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP).

The GDP growth figure is calculated quarterly basis and now the NAC meeting is expected to be held in October/November 2025 in order to calculate the growth of first quarter of the next fiscal year and revising the growth figure of the fiscal year 2024-25. Keeping in view assumptions, there is a chance of substantial revision because till that time the actual numbers of different sectors will be available.

To another question on poverty and unemployment figures, he said that the PBS was busy in population census and other assignments but the poverty and labour force survey were underway and data would be available by coming October/November to analyse and come up with latest numbers on poverty and unemployment.