KSE-100 closes flat on IMF conditions, pre-budget jitters

KARACHI: The equities market closed nearly flat on Monday after a volatile session, driven by concerns over new conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which also projected a subdued GDP forecast for the current fiscal year.

The benchmark KSE-100 index settled at 119,689.63, gaining 40.49 points or 0.03 per cent. The index traded within a range of 1,034.87 points, reaching an intraday high of 120,285.54 (+636.4 points) and a low of 119,250.67 (-398.47 points).

Total volume on the KSE-100 index stood at 119.53 million shares. Of the 100 index companies, 50 closed higher, 49 ended lower, and one remained unchanged.

Analysts said that news regarding a potential resolution of circular debt in the energy sector lent some support to the market. However, investors remained cautious, resorting to profit-taking ahead of the upcoming budget, which is expected to introduce new taxation measures.

“Stocks closed flat amid uncertainty in the pre-budget session, as well as the $3.4 billion trade deficit recorded for April 2025, reflecting declining exports and geopolitical tensions,” said Ahsan Mehanti, analyst at Arif Habib Corp.

He added that concerns over proposed new tax measures amounting to Rs700 billion and the IMF’s lowered growth forecast of 2.6 per cent for FY25 played a key role in shaping investor sentiment.

“The local bourse experienced a consolidation phase during Monday’s trading session, hovering near all-time high levels,” said Naveed Nadeem, Senior Equity Trader at Topline Securities, in his post-market commentary.

He noted that the index moved within a wide band, posting an intraday high of 636 points and a low of 398 points, before closing slightly up by 40.49 points or 0.03 per cent.

Nadeem said the steady upward bias was underpinned by investor optimism following the release of a detailed IMF report, which provided clarity on the country’s macroeconomic direction and policy outlook.

Positive sentiment was further boosted by renewed developments regarding resolution of the circular debt issue, drawing interest towards key energy and gas sector players such as PPL, OGDC, PSO, SNGP and SSGC.

On the upside, major contributors included ENGROH, PPL, and PSO, which collectively added 246 points to the index. On the downside, MARI, UBL, and LUCK together shaved off 224 points.

Overall market participation declined, with total traded volume falling to 424 million shares and a traded value of Rs22.2 billion. FFL led the volume chart, with 60.6 million shares changing hands.

With the index trading near record levels, the market appears to be pausing for breath while maintaining its bullish undertone -- awaiting stronger catalysts to propel it to new highs.

Top gainers during the session included POML (+10 per cent), RMPL (+10 per cent), MUGHAL (+6.47 per cent), PKGP (+4.88 per cent), and KTML (+4.74 per cent). In contrast, top losers were AGL (-3.21 per cent), PTC (-3.04 per cent), IBFL (-2.96 per cent), MARI (-2.8 per cent), and HCAR (-2.22 per cent).

In terms of index-point contributions, leading gainers were ENGROH (+223.87 points), PPL (+75.15 points), PSO (+37.93 points), RMPL (+28.62 points), and PKGP (+27.72 points). Dragging the index lower were MARI (-144.28 points), FFC (-63.38 points), LUCK (-62.01 points), UBL (-47.18 points), and SYS (-24.71 points).

Sector-wise, the KSE-100 index received support from investment banks/investment companies/securities companies (+226.92 points), textile composite (+56.18 points), oil and gas marketing companies (+39.70 points), engineering (+36.84 points), and power generation and distribution (+21.95 points).