India is pushing the world toward another rice crisis

NEW DELHI: This has been a bad year for food prices in the world’s poorest countries. Whether their citizens eat wheat or rice, three calamities have caused grain supplies to dry up: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its decision to abandon the Black Sea grain initiative; the El Niño weather phenomenon, which has traditionally caused poor harvests across the world; and Indian domestic politics.

Spooked by volatile foodgrain prices ahead of a general election next year, India’s government has banned or taxed exports of most kinds of rice and wheat. While India is a large producer of wheat, it really dominates the rice market: Its exports represent about 40 percent of the global rice trade.

Step by step, New Delhi has tightened a noose around the global rice market. Some varieties now face a 20 percent export duty, others are subject to a minimum export price, and still others cannot be exported at all.

Every rice eater in the wider world has felt the pinch. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that rice prices were 28 percent higher in September this year than they were in 2022. Prices hit a 15-year high early that month.

The last time prices reached those levels, in the first quarter of 2008, it was also because of competitive export restrictions across the world, kicked off again by India. Then, too, an Indian government was worried about inflation ahead of a competitive general election.