Surge in outages feared as cyclone hits LNG cargoes berthing

ISLAMABAD: In the days to come more power load-shedding will haunt the nation as LNG cargo of 100mmcfd could not be berthed in LNG Terminal-1 on Monday because of squally winds in the wake of cyclone Biparjoy that is getting closer to Pakistan’s coastal areas. And if the situation continues, gas availability for the power sector will go down enough to declare a gas supply emergency, a senior official told The News.

This will lead to more power outages in the country as there is currently a shortfall of 6000MW. The gas supply to the power sector dropped to 600 from 690 mmcfd because of the failure in berthing the LNG cargo at Terminal-1 and if the LNG cargo is not berthed today (Tuesday), and cyclone winds continue to blow, then the cargo which is also on the way may not arrive warranting severe gas shortfall for power sector.

And on top of that one LNG cargo which is due to arrive at LNG Terminal-2 on June 14 may not be berthed if by then the cyclone does not head to the Indian coast. In this scenario, the intake of imported gas may touch the lowest ebb of 100 mmcfd, but it depends on how long the severity of the cyclone continues. Currently, the line pack stands at 5000 mmcfd which is not enough for two days of consumption in the country. The domestic sector in the SNGPL system is being provided with just 450 mmcfd system gas. The household sector is already being provided gas at cooking times and after 10 pm no gas is available.

The Sui Southern spokesman when contacted said imported gas intake is already deficient in its system and it will not impact on SSGC consumers. However, the imported intake which varies in the range of 75-150 mmcfd will impact some powerhouses in Karachi. “The domestic gas supply hovers around 550 to 750 mmcfd depending upon the demand. However, the SNGPL system will be adversely impacted.” The government has decided to curtail furnace oil imports for power generation due to the dollar crunch and has decided to keep reliance on power generation through RLNG-based, coal-run power plants, hydropower plants, and nuclear powerhouses.

Hydrogenation from the main dams of Tarbela and Mangla depends upon the water releases, which fluctuate on the demand of the provinces for irrigation. The official said that because of the ongoing construction work of Tarbela Dam for the 4th and 5th extension power projects, about 1,410MW was not coming into the system. Neelum-Jehlum Hydropower Project is also non-operational, which has resulted in a shortfall of 969MW in the system. Also, other power units of the Tarbela Dam are generating low electricity because of construction issues and fluctuations in the water release as per demands from provinces. On top of this, line and recovery losses are also on the higher side. Therefore, higher generation also translates to higher losses. The official said that due to certain constraints, hydropower was not being utilized at full capacity.

The powerhouses are currently running over 13 percent to 64 percent of their capacity mainly because of the Rs2.5 trillion circular debt. The government alone owes the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor power project $1 billion,” the official said.