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Thursday April 18, 2024

Why Indian nuclear stockpiles are not vexing America

Prior and during the Pakistan visit by American National Security Advisor Ms Susan Rice a salvo of reports were dripping out of American, Indian and some Pakistani writers apropos Pakistan becoming third largest nuclear stockpiling country in the world. These writers mostly referred Toby Dalton and Michael Krepon, two renowned

By Muhammad Saeed
September 02, 2015
Prior and during the Pakistan visit by American National Security Advisor Ms Susan Rice a salvo of reports were dripping out of American, Indian and some Pakistani writers apropos Pakistan becoming third largest nuclear stockpiling country in the world. These writers mostly referred Toby Dalton and Michael Krepon, two renowned think tanks of the US for estimating more than one hundred nuclear warheads possessed by Pakistan. Selection of the occasion of American NSA's visit to Pakistan, for demonising the country on nuclear issue appeared to be for creating a coercive background favouring both American NSA and India.
Joining the bandwagon of propagation of this unfounded brainwave, another writer in her article gave prominence to this half-truth with similar zeal as of others that Pakistan is estimated to possess 120 nuclear warheads, she has identified additional threats to national security. She however ignored the connectivity of energy security with the overall nuclear programme of Pakistan. Ironically, Pakistan's civil nuclear programme meant for generation of clean and cost effective energy is also criticised excessively. Pakistan's water and cyber security are equally threatened more from Indians as part of their wholesome strategy to undermine Pakistan rather than indolence of Pakistani government to address the issues.
Nevertheless she has ignored the ensuing fact that India with the support of global powers has upped the ante against Pakistan that apparently is drifting away from extra regional influence to a more regional integration in order to become economically robust, which is not acceptable for a plethora of reasons to many including India. Author may be correct in her own right of prioritising national security interests but the ground reality is absolutely different as India cannot attain the status of regional power without subjugating another competing power especially when nuclear parity is only meaningful factor that restrains India.
Until Pakistan is not labeled as an irresponsible nuclear country that also alleged for supporting radicalised violence elsewhere, how it would be possible for opponent to subjugate its rival. Capitalising on the occasions like visit of American NSA and likely visit of Indian PM followed by Pakistan PM or vice versa, has become a routine endeavour of global powers and India to psychologically condition opinion-makers within and outside Pakistan, to effect opposition the country's nuclear programme by making it controversial through exaggerated quantities of warheads.
Conversely, India increasing its nuclear stockpile is hardly discussed rather justified despite India running all around to build up nuclear material and technologies on one or the other pretext. According to many other estimates by nuclear experts, India could have up to 375 nuclear weapons that in reality makes India third-largest nuclear stockpile in the world.
According to one longtime expert Mark Hibbs, an atomic-policy specialist with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, India's pursuit of membership in an exclusive international nuclear-export trade group faces many challenges, because New Delhi's possession of undeclared atomic arms outside the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty remains a key sticking point for many countries in the nuclear suppliers group, the voluntary trade body that India has been clamoring unsuccessfully for admittance to for years. Mark Hibbs also underlines that many countries are uncomfortable with the continual build-up of India's nuclear-weapons that triggers competition for WMDs in the region. Nuclear expert was of the opinion that there are also technical matters standing in the way, such as "how NSG rules would apply to India since it has unaccounted number of nuclear weapons.
The 48-nation organisation sets non-binding guidance for member states' exports of atomic materials and technology with the aim of curbing the spread of nuclear weapons. At the nuclear suppliers group's one of the yearly meeting in June 2014, the body did not reach any agreement on whether to admit India, despite high-profile backing for doing so from countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia.
Many writers contributing articles about Pakistan allegedly storing third largest number of nuclear weapons, hardly have the courage to point out the matters about how many western countries including certain states in the NSG are skeptical and face the near certain prospect that if they oppose Indian membership, India will leverage its bilateral relationships to advance its case. India's quest for Atomic Trade Group Membership continues to expand and modernise its arms programs by seeking to expand ballistic missile and cruise missile based nuclear delivery systems thus stirring the need to address perceived security threats.
Such nuclear competition is dangerous given mounting mistrust and a dearth of diplomatic measures in place to reduce risk of confrontation. It was India that troubled the world by resuming nuclear testing at a time when the international community solemnly expressed a desire through the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) to refrain from the field-testing of nuclear explosives. On May 11, 1998, the then Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee succinctly announced that New Delhi had conducted nuclear tests, one of which involved the detonation of a thermonuclear device. As a stunned global community struggled to respond to this development, India announced two days later that it had conducted more detonations. In the aftermath of these tests, India declared itself to be a nuclear weapon state and formally announced its intention to develop more weapons to maintain credible deterrent. India has aspiration to become NSG member and become even first largest country of nuclear stockpiles.