American shortsightedness

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken the global order. Prices have escalated dramatically, and economies worldwide are struggling to stay afloat.

Despite the Russian invasion, the US does not believe that Russia poses a major threat to the international order. It is more concerned about China’s global influence and economic reach. Last month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivered an address which intended to pit the international community against China, which the US believes is a long-term threat to global stability.

Blinken argued: “China is the one country that has the intention as well as the economic, technological, military and diplomatic means to advance a different vision of international order…The foundations of the international order are under serious and sustained danger.” This came as a huge surprise as Russia’s aggression is the first major land war in Europe since 1945.

Russia has invaded Georgia and Ukraine, and effectively annexed parts of those countries. Furthermore, it unleashed its brutality on Chechnya, killing thousands of civilians. What the US has failed to understand over the last 20 years is that intentions can be more destabilizing than military primacy. While Russia is not a hegemonic superpower, it remains a key international player, which possesses important instruments of national power and the drive to use these instruments to influence political outcomes worldwide. They also carry great historical wisdom and strategic nuance, which allows them to regroup when they are in a difficult position, and form unexpected allies and partnerships through smart diplomacy.

Russia may not be a rising economic power, but is by no means the geo-political basket case it once was in the immediate aftermath of the post-Soviet era. For America to view Russia as a ramshackle entity which only displays petulant bouts of disruption is a gross misrepresentation. As the Ukraine invasion has shown, and as the Russian role in Syria, Venezuela, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, currently in Kazakhstan has demonstrated that it is not a broken former power. As the United States continues to peddle this false narrative, Russia is capitalizing on their ignorance by building an alliance with China.

One of the cardinal rules of geo-strategy is to divide adversaries, but in this case, American foreign policy has done the opposite. Its unyielding aggressive nature towards China has been so counterproductive that it has united two of its biggest foes. This is a massive strategic failure. Historically, China and Russia have never been close. Now, the two powers seem to be closer than ever before. With Russia’s economy under severe pressure, China’s support would be invaluable. Russia recently announced new deals to sell more oil and gas to China and other imports from the country. A Kremlin advisor, Sergey Karaganov stated in February 2022 that “China is our strategic cushion…in any difficult situation we can lean on it for military, political and economic support.

For decades, the US was separately closer to Russia and China than they were to each other, but that is no longer the case. Once again, the US has failed to understand their adversaries and their capabilities. Not having a better working relationship with China has backfired and China has moved closer to Moscow primarily because it has been pushed in that direction. Through a shortsighted foreign policy, the US seems to be uniting its foes. It continues to have an inflexible and unimaginative approach towards the East. America would do well to take a leaf out of Henry Kissinger’s book when 51 years ago, the former secretary of state normalized relations between the US and the People’s Republic of China.

It will take a bold administration to reset America’s relationship with China, but it is a strategy they have to consider, as it has become clear that trying to unite the world against the economic power is not working. Moreover, the refusal to thoroughly assess or accept Russia’s influence and role in the global arena is extremely naive. Moscow has shown that it has the ability to use both hard and soft power to achieve its objectives. For the US not to recognize these facts means that it is still stuck in a post-cold war time warp, and is refusing to understand the current geo-political environment.

The US is no longer the sole superpower it once was. The world has entered an age of great and complex power disputes in a multipolar world, which is why cooperation and collaboration must prevail over aggression and isolation.

The writer is a veteran journalist, political analyst and author. He can be reached at:

humayun.gauhar786@gmail.com