Change in the air

To say that the world is changing is a truism. The question is: what is it morphing into, and what is the debris it will leave behind? It is not the first time it has happened. In 1991, the USSR disappeared – giving birth to many Central Asian states and to the unipolar world in which the US became the sole superpower. However, America soon found it difficult to operate in a non-adversarial situation. It created enemies where there were none. The first enemy was the rising Muslim world, which had to be pushed back.

China was the second adversary, and is now being attacked by the US on every economic front. Like in every other war before, the US is likely to lose the economic war against China which is already virtually the replacement superpower, and is learning how to handle that situation. For its own sake, the US should learn to live with the shocks, and cut out a role for itself as the other superpower. They did it before, when we had a bipolar world along with the Soviet Union, except that now the US will be comparatively less important, and other countries will start using China as a punishment for America. There will also be a time when these other countries will start using the US as a punishment against China.

The new world order will remain adversarial, largely bipolar, and with an ascendant China. Other world hot spots like Israel and Palestine, Iran and its nuclear programme, Taiwan and China, India and Pakistan, will have to find their own equilibrium.

There are only a few countries that destabilise the world with their obduracy: One is India, the other is Israel, and the third is an ascendant Russia. Russia is at the center of the latest tension with the US over Ukraine. If Russia wants to gobble up Ukraine, it makes a perverse kind of sense because of their geographic proximity. America, thousands of miles away, continues to interfere. They continue to not learn from their past mistakes, and will once again pay a heavy price. America is already deeply divided, with liberals and the conservatives constantly at each other’s throats. Perhaps it would be wise for President Biden to sort out America’s internal affairs, rather than looking to meddle abroad. One would think that their humiliating exit from Afghanistan would give them pause.

On the domestic front, even though the opposition is attempting to create all kinds of diversions, Prime Minister Imran Khan is managing to keep his nose above the water. These days he has gone to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics. Many other world leaders are also present. Imran Khan will get a chance to meet them all. The most exciting meeting could be with Vladamir Putin. If China and Russia could finally realise that there is no profit in backing anyone except Imran Khan, Pakistan’s development process will continue apace.

Pakistan and China have to protect CPEC. That is an imperative on which there can be no compromise. If CPEC reaches maturity, some countries will see it as a threat, for it will open up Pakistan and Central Asia to the rest of the world. China will also be a huge beneficiary, economically and in the military sense. Therein lies the rub. It would be mature and sensible for both China and Pakistan to mitigate the fears of others. This is where diplomacy should come into its own. The ball lies in our foreign minister’s court. We wait to see how he handles it. Let’s give him a chance to think.

Imran Khan’s test of diplomacy needs to come to the fore. With Pakistan’s economic fragility, the prime minister must use all these factors to Pakistan’s gain. Rather than focusing and giving airtime to the opposition’s poppycock, Imran Khan should seek to build and foster global relationships for Pakistan’s benefit. His main task now will be to rebuild his team. Pakistan is full of people who have the nous to catch the mouse.

The writer is a veteran journalist, political analyst and author. He can be reached at:

humayun.gauhar786@gmail.com