Fifth Covid-19 wave may start in mid February, warns NHS

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan may experience the fifth wave of Covid-19 in the mid of February 2022 with daily detection of around 3,000-4,000 cases per day as community transmission of Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 or Coronavirus has started in the major cities of Pakistan, especially in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad where so far 75 people were found infected with the Variant of Concern (VoC), officials warned on Tuesday.

“Transmission of Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 has started in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad and we fear rise of Covid-19 cases all over the country in the coming two weeks.

Pakistan may experience the fifth wave of the Covid-19 in the middle of February 2022 with number of daily cases rising to 3,000 to 4,000," an official of the National Health Services, Regulations and Coordination (NHS,R&C) told The News.

The National Institute of Health (NIH), Islamabad, also confirmed that so far 75 cases of Omicron variant were confirmed in Pakistan, including 33 in Karachi where the first case was reported on December 13, 2021 while 17 cases of Omicron variant have been reported from Islamabad and 13 in Lahore.

The NHS official further claimed that most of the Omicron variant cases were ‘asymptomatic’, which indicates that it could be spreading silently in the major cities where only a few labs had the capacity to pick the suspected cases and then report it to the National Institute of Health (NIH), Islamabad, and Aga Khan University Hospital (AKUH) for confirmation through Whole Genome Sequencing.

“There are seven or eight labs in entire Pakistan with the capacity to detect the mutations in the virus that indicate that it is the Omicron variant. Once these labs have the suspected cases, they refer it to NIH or AKUH Karachi for whole genome sequencing for confirmation. Probably, that’s why we are not seeing a large number of cases of this variant of concern but it is rapidly replacing Delta variant in Pakistan”, the official warned.

To a query, the NHS official said use of inactivated virus vaccines, especially Sinopharm and Sinovac as well as a ‘pre-existing non-specific immunity’, could prevent Pakistani population from severe disease from the Omicron variant and added that with almost 50 percent Pakistani population vaccinated, this variant could also provide the required herd immunity in a shorter span of time.

Officials at the Dow University of Health Sciences (DUHS) Karachi and Aga Khan University Hospital (AKUH) said they have detected several suspected Omicron variant cases and were now trying to get them confirmed through whole genome sequencing. "We would be able to confirm Omicron variant cases by Thursday," an official of the DUHS said.

But the officials at the International Center for Chemical and Biological Sciences (ICCBS), University of Karachi, said they were continuously monitoring the Covid-19 positive cases and so far they had not seen any suspected case of Omicron variant in Sindh.

“We have urged the Sindh health department to send us the samples of suspected cases as we have the capability to perform whole genome sequencing within two days. So far we have only seen Delta and Kappa variants in Sindh," Director ICCBS Prof. Dr. Iqbal Chaudhry told The News.

The molecular genetics experts said no commercial lab in Karachi or anywhere in the country was detecting the Omicron variant although its kit was now available in the country.

 The “kit for the detection of Omicron variant is available in market like the kit for detection of Delta variant. Only the research labs at major varsities are doing the detection through whole genome sequencing”, Dr. Muhammad Zohaib, a molecular scientist at Children’s Hospital Karachi, said.