At a loss

The PTI, which had not organised elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa two years after they were due, and finally had to do so on court orders – and that too on a party basis as ordered by the court – has suffered a rather embarrassing defeat in the 2021 local government elections that have finally been held in 17 districts of KP. The JUI-F has emerged as the chief winner, claiming 16 tehsil seats, while the PTI was able to win just 14. It fared even more poorly in the contest for mayor on four major seats, losing in Mardan, Kohat, Peshawar and Bannu. The Mardan seat was won by the ANP candidate, followed by the JUI-F, while the other seats were won by JUI-F candidates. On many seats, the PTI did not claim even second place. This is a huge change from the mood in the province in 2018.

The question that people would ask naturally is why, and what happened. Many of the answers have come from PTI MNAs and representatives themselves, who speak of the high rate of inflation, saying that there was no way they could convince people to vote for them given the lack of gas, and the high price of basic commodities such as ‘atta’. There has also been talk of corruption, without accountability, and the prime minister apparently only getting a rosy picture from his aides. They have suggested that the real facts of life in KP and other parts of the country be looked at if the change that the PM has promised is really going to come about in the next phase of polling in KP. The prime minister, meanwhile, has blamed the loss on a 'wrong choice of candidates' and has said he himself will personally supervise their selection for the next phase of the LG polls. Whether this will make a difference is something we will need to see. But certainly things cannot go any worse for the PTI.

The reasons for the JUI-F's dramatic comeback in the province is also something which needs analysis. There have been suggestions that the Taliban win in Afghanistan helped bolster the party. This may have some truth within it. But it is also a fact that the JUI-F was the party which most strongly opposed the PTI at both the provincial and national levels. The ANP which has also made a comeback was less aggressive in its approach to acting as an opposition to the ruling PTI and held back on this count in many areas. Despite this, it has made progress. With the province now dominated by the JUI-F, the question for the PTI is what to do next. The party will need to prepare not only for the next round of LG polls, but also for the general election in 2023. At present, despite projects such as the BRT and other facilities to Peshawar and other cities, it does not appear that people have embraced the party or seen any change in their lives. This appears to be the major factor in the huge loss suffered by the PTI which must do some hard thinking ahead of the next round of polls. Also on political observers' minds are the Punjab LG polls – we may be in for a will-they-or-won't-they [happen] situation after this drubbing faced by the ruling party in KP.