Dip in water system forces Irsa to release water to Sindh from Mangla

ISLAMABAD: The water availability crisis in the country has aggravated more as the dip in water system has started appearing on the scene compelling the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) to reduce water withdrawal from the Tarbela Dam by taking the decision to release 8,000 cusecs of water per day to Sindh from May 18 under a temporary arrangement.

The water regulator has told the provinces that if the dip lasts for a week, the water shortage will go up by 25-30 per cent as the flows in water system are on the decline mainly because of lower temperature at catchment areas of Indus, Kabul, Jhelum and Chenab rivers. The IRSA, keeping in view the present water situation, has asked the provinces to utilize the available surface water in the river system efficiently by placing the rationalized indents in the future without any wastage till the normalization of the water situation.

However, the IRSA decision to release water to Sindh from the Mangla Dam has irked the Punjab government which termed the decision in its official response as breach of filling criteria of the Mangla Dam.

Under the decision, the total outflows from Mangla have been increased to 58,000 cusecs from 50,000 cusecs with an immediate effect to reduce withdrawals from the Tarbela Dam keeping in view the declining water flows in the Indus River, which have plummeted to almost 55,000 cusecs per day. IRSA Chairman Rao Irshad Ali Khan confirmed the development of giving water to Sindh from the Mangla Dam under temporary arrangements, saying that Tarbela and Mangla Dams are the collective pool of water of the government and it can provide water to any province from any dam depending upon the water availability in the reservoir. He said that unfortunately, the impression has developed that the Tarbela Dam is meant for Sindh and the Mangla Dam for Punjab that is not correct. He said that because of some rains on Monday, the system got 15,000 cusecs of water at Chashma. However, the temperature at Skardu continues to be at a lower side somewhere between 19 and 20 degrees centigrade which is why the water flows are being seen at the lower side in the system. He said if the temperature goes up to 24 degrees centigrade, the flows will increase to 80,000 cusecs per day and if the temperature moves up to 30 degrees centigrade, the water flows in the Indus River will surge up to 150,000 cusecs per day. The dams are meant to cater to water needs of the provinces for irrigation purposes and dams are filled when there is surplus water.

Sindh is at present getting 76,000 cusecs per day, Punjab 94,000 cusecs per day, Balochistan 8,000 cusecs and KP 3,000 cusecs. Under the water accord, Sindh and Punjab are the provinces which only share the water shortages.

The IRSA, which met on Tuesday to review the water situation, assessed that the declining water flows would be augmented with available water storages in dams. Water flows in the Indus River have plummeted to just 55,600 cusecs from 69,000 cusecs per day in recent days and in the Kabul River, the water flows dipped to 38,000 from 50,000 cusecs per day, in the Jhelum River to 52,000 cusecs from 55,000 cusecs per day and in the Chenab River to 22,000 cusecs from 24,000 cusecs per day. And the declining trend is going on because of low temperature in the catchment areas of the Indus River. Since the water in the Tarbela Dam has reduced to 0.216 MAF and water in the Mangla Dam stands at 0.630 MAF. So, the IRSA has decided to cater to water needs of the Sindh province through Mangla.

“Yes, the IRSA has told the Punjab government through its letter written on May 18 about the decision that from Tuesday, Sindh will be provided water from Mangla along with its new estimates about water availability in the system, keeping in view the declining trend in water flows, saying that the second dip in water flows has started appearing and if it gets prolonged, the water deficit will surge up to 25-30 per cent,” confirmed MH Siddiqui, advisor to Punjab Irrigation Department. He said the IRSA Advisory Committee in its meeting held on April 8 had approved the anticipated Rim-Station inflows and finalized the provincial shares with 10% likely shortage with consensus during early Kharif period (April-June 10). However, the actual shortages have increased more than the IRSA had anticipated and now in rivers, water shortages are in the range of 20 per cent.

He berated the Sindh government for releasing water of 450 cusecs per day downstream Kotri when the same province is crying for shortage of water for irrigation of Kharif crops. He said the IRSA has under the latest scenario anticipated more increase in water shortages, keeping in view the low temperatures at Skardu.

Meanwhile, the Punjab government, in a statement issued here on Wednesday, has come up with a demand in the strongest possible words that the IRSA adjust Kharif allocations judiciously to meet the demands of the provinces in accordance with the available inflows at rim stations without disturbing the planned filling of the Mangla Reservoir.

The statement says that on May 18, the IRSA decided to release additional 8,000 cusecs from the Mangla Reservoir to meet the indents of Sindh, which is against the IRSA's planning and criteria of the Mangla Dam filling for the remaining current Kharif and the forthcoming Rabbi Season. The IRSA had intimated a shortfall of 10% during early Kharif for 2021, however, the actual river flows received during this period are much lesser than anticipated. Instead of revisiting the estimated availability, a shortfall which may be in the range of 25% to 30%, the IRSA has decided to supply additional water from the Mangla Dam to Sindh through Panjnad.

It also says that Punjab with a command area of 21.71 million acres has endured a shortage of 26% against 15% with Sindh having significantly less CCA of 12.78 million acres. On May 18, the Mangla Reservoir was experiencing a deficit of 53.30 ft in its expected levels as predicted by the IRSA and a 75% shortage in volume against what was calculated by the IRSA. This is an alarming situation. If this trend continues, the outflow from the Mangla Reservoir would be reduced to about 38,000 Cs within next 15 days which in turn will drastically affect the sowing of Kharif crops in Punjab. Punjab has not been able to feed Taunsa canals as per requirements due to reduced flows and has suffered a shortage of 68%, as projected by the IRSA. Though Punjab has the right to utilize its share from all canals to feed Jhelum-Chenab Zone, it has not been allowed a single drop of water from the CJ and TP Link canals for this purpose and we have not been able to feed 123,560 acres of Lower Rangpur Canal. Despite these severe shortages, Sindh has so far released 0.048 MAF (24,200 Cs) water downstream Kotri barrage to the sea. The Mangla Dam's situation is worsening day by day and there is a certain risk of it not getting filled which may badly affect the leftover period of early Kharif and most importantly the upcoming season of (wheat) Rabi season in Punjab. Mangla is the major source of water supply to feed the channels of Jhelum-Chenab Zone which consists of 13 million acres of fertile farm lands, an area greater than Sindh's. “If filing of the Mangla Reservoir is not handled prudently, it would be detrimental to the farmers of Punjab and national economy and food security of the country as a whole,” says the Punjab government in its statement.