TLP rift may split Barelvi votes in NA-249 by-election

The Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) had emerged as one of the major political groups in the NA-249 constituency by ranking third after securing over 23,000 votes and winning one of the provincial assembly seats in Baldia Town.

However, the religious party has been facing a crisis ahead of the upcoming by-election, as one of its key leaders has been independently contesting against the TLP’s nominated candidate.

The last NA-249 election had been a close contest, with the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) Faisal Vawda securing 35,344 votes to defeat the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s central leader and former Punjab chief minister Shahbaz Sharif, who had polled 34,626 votes.

But the TLP had ranked third in the constituency during the last general elections after bagging 23,981 votes and had also won one of the two PA seats falling under the National Assembly constituency.

This time round, the TLP was confident of winning the by-poll for the NA-249 seat by mobilising the party in the constituency. But the religious party’s plans apparently failed because of the inner fissures over the ticket’s allocation.

After the TLP’s previous candidate Mubarak did not show an interest in contesting the by-poll for NA-249, Maulana Ahmed Bilal Qadri, a former TLP candidate for the NA-248 constituency comprising Lyari and the old city areas, applied for the ticket for the NA-249 by-election scheduled for April 29.

Ahmed Bilal Qadri, son of the Sunni Tehreek’s slain founder Saleem Qadri, had ranked second in the NA-246 constituency during the 2018 general elections by bagging 42,345 votes, more than Pakistan Peoples Party chief Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who had ranked third with 39,325 votes. The PTI’s Shakoor Shah had won the seat with 52,750 votes.

However, the TLP has fielded Mufti Nazeer Kamalvi for the NA-249 by-poll. Disgruntled by the party’s decision, Ahmed Bilal Qadri has announced contesting the election for the constituency as an independent candidate.

Vote split

Although the TLP is confident that the party’s support base in the NA-249 constituency is on the rise and its candidate will win the by-poll, analysts believe that Qadri’s participation in the by-election will split the TLP’s vote bank.

“The TLP has emerged as a key Barelvi political party across the country, including in Karachi, and possesses a strong organisational structure across the constituency,” said a representative of a religious school from the Barelvi school of thought.

“However, it should also be noted that the crucial support of the Ahmed Bilal Qadri-led faction of the Sunni Tehreek had helped the TLP emerge as the third-largest political force in Karachi.” He also claimed that the children of the Barelvi religious leaders who were killed in the 2006 bombing in Nishtar Park are with the Ahmed Bilal Qadri-led faction of the ST.