Stark realities, challenges confronting world in 2021

LAHORE: Researchers, academics, business pundits and economists in the West have a unanimous viewpoint that the year 2021 will pose grave economic challenges to all governments in the world and its nearly eight billion inhabitants due to an inevitable plunge in the International Gross Domestic Product levels amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

Right now, the rather slow pace of COVID-19 vaccine manufacture and distribution in many parts of the world have aggravated the economic, social and health crises in the US, Russia, the European Union and all continents one can name.

Some US institutions and media houses have apprehended that 42 per cent US residents might not get the vaccine due to uncertain production capacities of companies and a gap between the medicine's demand and supply, making it difficult for the Joe Biden government to contain the COVID-19 even in 2021!

Throughout 2020, the governments could not prevent massive job loss and the plummeting confidence in business markets despite worldwide tough measures like lockdowns. Therefore, tighter financial conditions like easing of monetary policies and interest rate had to be introduced as many employers and employees found themselves struggling in economic wilderness.

The "Forbes," an internationally-acclaimed American business magazine, opines that from mental health issues to remote work practices, the workplace has set new boundaries and learning opportunities.

This 103-year-old journal, which features original articles on finance, industry, investing, and marketing topics, states that the main challenges to the mankind in 2020 are here to stay in 2021 also.

The media house maintains: “The US saw a 125 per cent increase in remote work usage. Although many people are returning to the workplace, and executives analyze hybrid models for some employees. Keeping people engaged, self-motivated and driving innovation with distributed teams remains challenging. The US saw a 7.2% drop in productivity after March 2020. One of the reasons is that the power to trigger ideas through informal connections in open offices and in-company cafes dissipated. Now that the limitations and the benefits of remote work are clearer, executives have indicated in surveys that hybrid models of remote work are the option for some employees. In the US workforce, 22 percent of employees can work remotely between three and five days a week without affecting productivity.”

Moreover, according to the “Forbes,” companies have started to offer networking alternatives and providing online tools like Zoom and Webinars etc, which enable communication, and reduce communication and travel costs.

The Institute of Development Studies, a think tank affiliated with the University of Sussex in England, is of the concerted opinion that the pandemic has exposed cracks in the systems and assumptions that underlie conventional models of development, highlighting that we need to do things differently.

In their December 23, 2020 report, researchers associated with this Institute have held that planning needs to be done to foster solidarities for more resilient communities and more equal societies, in a bid to enable them to respond to future shocks and uncertainties.

Here follow some more of the bitter challenges that the COVID-19 poses for 2021: Since it has proved an uphill task till date to contain the pandemic outbreak, the distribution of vaccine will remain a key issue, though nobody is absolutely sure about the ugly turns the mutation cycles of the deadly Virus might take in coming times. See, the new Corona strain in the United Kingdom is believed to be 70 per cent more transmissible than the one that had left millions of Britishers reeling during the first wave!

International travel will remain restricted and uncertain, hence affecting airlines, hotels, tourism and hospitality businesses everywhere on Earth, leading to job losses to the tune of dozens of millions.

Dearth of food items and agricultural production may lead to an increase in deaths due to hunger, starvation and resultant diseases in many down-trodden and less privileged parts of the world, in particular.

The children will have to bear the worst brunt as malnourishment during their growth years would certainly land them in psychological and metal disorders for life. The United Nations has warned that the world should brace up to witness the worst-ever food crisis in 50 years as the supply chain stands broken due to the Virus.

Fall in global GDP would cause an economic depression and the resultant turmoil might ignite civil unrest, mutiny, wars, bloody rebellions and mass agitation movements in many parts of the world, hence plunging 150 million more people into poverty. It is going to be an irony because collective efforts of world leaders pulled many millions out of poverty in the last three decades.

The inhabitants of at least 20 poor countries will have a hard access to twice-a-day meals. The middle-class would shrink, as has been the case in Latin America where only 52 million people qualify to be part of the middle-income groups.

Therefore, the Coronavirus-triggered bomb may blast over the heads of underdeveloped and developing nations that are languishing under huge amounts of debt. To be precise, the debt of $15 trillion, outstanding against these cash-starved countries, might reach up to 365 per cent of the world GDP.

These poor countries have to pay $7 trillion in foreign debt obligations by the end of next year so one can imagine their economic plight. Zambia has already emerged as the sixth country this year to default after failing to meet its foreign credit obligations.

It is imperative to note that the IMF is already supporting 81 nations to fight COVID-19. Even in the US, as many Western NGOs, think tanks and eminent media houses have apprehended, one out of every five households would be fighting and facing food insecurity.

Investment flows to developing nations might reduce by US$700 billion and a vicious circle of poverty will surface with all its ill effects on humans. Turkey’s quest and dream to expand might remain unrealized.

Under Tayyep Erdogan, in particular, Turkey has opted for various military-led adventures in Somalia, Qatar, Libya, Iraq and Syria etc. It has fought Russia in Azerbaijan and many Arab states consider men at the helm of affairs in Istanbul to be a threat to their existence and salvation.

In US, President-elect Joe Biden would have to strive hard to govern the country while his rival Donald Trump is likely to give him a tough time as Republicans are enjoying a majority in the US Senate, and in all likelihood, the Congress might urge him to attack North Korea and Iran etc. Trump administration has already threatened China for supplying arms to Taiwan.

Washington DC policy-makers under Trump have shown that they lack the spirit of tolerance and co-existence — a very dangerous sign as the country is preparing to go into 2021 with a wind that is seemingly not blowing in its favour due to the havoc unleashed and wreaked by the Coronavirus.

Having already parted ways with the World Health Organization during 2020, the US under President Trump, has been busy creating obstructions for various other international organizations that work for the welfare of suffering humanity.

Many fear that the US might inflict an astounding thud to the efforts of the G-20 to enact a new framework that could help poor nations discharge their debts easily. However, despite all the odds and negatives, the American scientists have been at work, discovering a Corona vaccine and looking into ways and means to expand the scope of artificial intelligence.

It goes without saying that the world would become a more divided place to live due to the likely differences that are bound to crop up among nations with rising income and revenue disparities.