Securing Pakistan?

The coming US retreat from Afghanistan after almost two decades has narrowed the strategic window of opportunity for India to expand Delhi’s footprint on Pakistan’s western border.

Consequently, India stepping back from Afghanistan must only drive down its objective of further pressing Pakistan through a two-border challenge – east and west.

This coincides with recent setbacks for Delhi elsewhere in the region, notably India’s apparent inability to expand its footprint across Iranian soil. As China’s economic ties deepen with Iran, India’s ability to follow up its investment in Iran’s ‘Chahbahar’ port with exposure elsewhere has practically been halted.

While Delhi’s once obvious goal of encircling Pakistan appears to have taken a hit, its targeting of Pakistan is far from over. A spate of terrorist attacks across Pakistan in recent months have been linked by Pakistan’s security investigators to Indian attempts at destabilizing Delhi’s western neighbor.

Though Pakistan can draw some comfort from the setbacks to India in Afghanistan and Iran, there is virtually no room for complacency. For decades, India has exploited opportunities across Balochistan and the Sindh to keep Pakistan on its toes. While Pakistan’s security services have plugged many of the holes across some of the country’s most vulnerable areas at the cost of sacrificing precious human lives, India continues to look for breaches elsewhere. Over the years, India has established ties with separatist individuals and groups in Pakistan to promote Delhi’s objective of destabilizing the country.

In the past year, India’s search for proxies to destabilize Pakistan has intensified as Indian prime minister Narendra Modi’s government has further tightened its stranglehold over the part of Kashmir under Delhi’s control. The separatist movement in Kashmir – now over three decades old – remains visibly out of control, adding to Delhi’s confusion and frustration.

Indian-administered Kashmir remains one of the most militarized regions of the world, given the verifiable ratio of army and paramilitary soldiers along side police deployed, versus the population of the mountainous territory.

Meanwhile, the risk to global security emanating from Kashmir remains powerfully visible. Beyond the standoff between India and Pakistan – the world’s only two nuclear armed foes located geographically side by side – the recent clashes between India and China have exposed another dangerous element to nuclear insecurity emanating from the region.

For Pakistan however beyond conditions on its borders, the challenge of internal insecurity provoked by India remains a continuing threat. In the months and years to come, such challenges will likely grow as Pakistan works with China on completion of the CPEC initiative.

First begun under the tenure of former president General Pervez Musharraf who oversaw launching of the Gwadar deep sea port, CPEC has become the essential pivot for Pakistan’s future prosperity. As the global economy remains in disarray from the twin challenges of the fallout from Covid-19 and lingering uncertainty surrounding factors such as global oil prices, China remains the sole likely foreign investor in Pakistan. It is a reality that Pakistan’s planners must tightly embrace and work with for the foreseeable future.

At the same time, Pakistan’s security embrace of China is set to deepen over the coming decade as Islamabad expands its naval platforms with the induction of eight new Chinese submarines alongside other maritime platforms, and works to further modernize its air defence and offence capabilities. This will be in addition to the expansion of capabilities for land warfare, necessitated by the dangerous Indo-Pakistan standoff and internal security challenges.

Internally within Pakistan, the country will need to further expand its security grip over regions targeted by India, notably Balochistan and Sindh. This will require a combination of economic policies geared towards strategic gains along with a national political consensus on Pakistan’s security framework.

While Pakistan’s foreign policy will drive part of the way forward, the eventual guarantee of national stability will be driven by Islamabad’s ability to take charge of its domestic environment.

Given the opportunities and challenges ahead, its vital for key stakeholders including mainstream political parties to build a consensus on tackling internal security challenges. Squabbling among rivals aspiring for political power on other fronts can well continue. But Pakistan’s internal security is much too vital to be subjected to divisive debate, let alone divisive policies.

The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist who writes on political and economic affairs.

Email: farhanbokhari@gmail.com