PTI’s ‘Punjab mission’

Ruling  appears to be on a ‘mission’ to make cracks within its key rival the PML-N in Punjab prior to next local bodies elections which may also be delayed for a year due to price hike and possible pressure from the Opposition.

The PTI is working on a strategy to create a separate parliamentary group of the PML-N within the Punjab Assembly in the next few months which could be called as ‘PTI’s Punjab Mission’. The pattern which they are likely to follow would not be different what the PML-N did within the PML-Q, during its tenure.

The PML-Q was created in 2002 after Chaudhrys of Gujrat reached an accord with former president Pervez Musharraf in 2002. Interestingly, it became the prime reason why Imran Khan distanced himself from Musharraf and blamed him for doing witch-hunting.

Now PM Imran Khan recently met some of the PML-N MPAs and assured them of his government support. The news was flashed and it did upset the party despite MPAs clarification that they would not quit the party.

How far the PTI leadership would succeed in the next few months would be interesting to watch as all past attempts have so far failed in the break-up like in 2002, despite disqualification and conviction of three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

Punjab government’s spokesperson Dr Shahbaz Gill is quite optimistic and confident that more will follow and he had even given numbers from 35 to 40 MPAs from Punjab and some MNAs too.

In view of certain restrictions on MPAs in the Political Parties Act and after 18th Amendment, sources said the PTI leadership is working on a formula to allow the dissidents from the PML-N to form their own parliamentary group within the Punjab Assembly but it may not be easy as for the formation of such group within the assembly it required at least 50 percent MPAs of the same party. The present strength of the PML-N in the Punjab Assembly is 160, meaning the dissidents need at least 80, which looked a remote possibility.

The other option for the dissidents would be to resign as MPAs, quit the PML-N and get themselves elected on PTI tickets. At present, neither they nor the PTI in Punjab is ready for that as they don’t want to take the risk, keeping in view the experience of 2018, where some turncoats could not get themselves elected.

Therefore, MPAs, who met the prime minister neither announced their resignation nor even were critical of their party Quaid Nawaz Sharif and said they only met with the PM in connection with the problems in their respective constituencies. One thing is certain that PTI will not go into local bodies elections soon and after the recent amendment in the Local Bodies Act, they could delay the same for a year.

Recent arrest of PML-N Punjab president and former provincial law minister and sitting MNA Rana Sanaullah in a narcotics case by Anti-Narcotics Force, has certainly shaken the party despite across the board reservations over the manner in which he was arrested.

However, the PTI leadership and its allies were a bit surprised that despite the arrest of key and vocal players like Hamza Shahbaz, Kh Saad Rafiq, Rana Sanaullah, possible arrest of PML-N President Shahbaz Sharif, former PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and rising pressure on some other prominent leaders like Kh Asif, Rana Tanveer, no major dent has so far occurred in the PML-N. The only dilemma which the PML-N was facing today is lack of clarity in its narrative although Nawaz has firm grip on the party and it is very unlikely that the younger brother Shahbaz defies him as he knows that party vote bank is with Nawaz.

Sources said veteran politician and president of Awami Muslim League, Sh Rashid in a recent meeting with the premier suggest that it may not be easy to break the PML-N in the presence of Sharifs in Pakistan, indirectly, suggesting for some kind of deal or NRO, but the PM had refused. But it was after that meeting that Imran did issue a statement suggesting to Sharifs and Zardari for ‘plea bargain’.

Nawaz and his daughter Maryam appeals which were pending in the Supreme Court will not be taken before court vacation. Many believe that if the SC accepts the appeals of either of the two, if not both, it may still not be good news for the PTI in Punjab. Government has also decided to resist the production order of Rana Sanaullah, and a source in the PTI suggested that the speaker can’t issue such an order of an accused arrested in narcotics case.

One of the reasons why PM Imran could not bring police and civil services reforms and accepted dozens of ‘lotas’ of other parties like the PML-N and the PPP before and after July 25 general elections last year, was his failure to break the ‘myth of Sharifs’ the way he wanted. In the end he was left with no choice but to form the Punjab government with their support.

Initially, the premier wanted drastic reforms but the political dynamics of Punjab and his party’s failure to form the government in the big province on its own like in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was left with no other choice but to drop those reforms and his most favourite officer, former IGP KP, Nasir Durrani, who he brought in Punjab, quit the job.

Another problem which he faced in Punjab was a clear andsharp division between two of party’s most senior leaders Jehangir Tareen and Shah Mahmood Qureshi and here too he was left with no other choice but to bring someone quite ‘Benami’ in politics, Usman Buzdar and gave him preference over other strong contenders like Aleem Khan and Fawad Chaudhry.

His plan for Punjab received a setback as first his party could not win enough seats and were not in a position to form the government without the support of the PML-Q and Janobi Punjab Mahaz.

The differences within the PTI still exist and on the other hand despite Nawaz’s conviction and disqualification, his political narrative has not died down and the rising price hike was further causing problems for the government.

Therefore, sources said the PTI may defer the local bodies’ elections schedule after November for at least one or two years and are in the process of running the local governments through ‘appointed administrators’ and unless they give positive results, elections are unlikely. One has to wait and see the final outcome of PTI’s ‘Punjab Mission’.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, Jang and The News.

Twitter: @Mazhar Abbas@GEO