Judicial Commission or political tsunami?

All eyes are fastened onto the first Judicial Commission (JC) of its kind to investigate the possibility of organized rigging in 2013 elections. The commission started working on Thursday and will take 45 days, if not more, to complete findings.
It’s like “political tsunami” in the country, as all the major parties, including the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the main opposition party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) have become party to the claim that the election has been rigged. But, do these parties challenging the election also have moral standing?
Just for the record of those who have little sense of history, there was one election, which the highest court in this country had declared “rigged” and that’s the 1990 election. It not only established the fact that the elections were rigged, but also confirmed the players involved in it.
It was the landmark decision of the court in which for the first time a former ISI chief, Lt. Gen. (R) Asad Durrani submitted an affidavit showing how money was distributed among politicians on the directives of the then army chief. Now, will the FIA, which was supposed to further probe the money distribution, come out with any findings or not?
The question, which remained unanswered, was about the winner of 1990 elections and what was the actual conspiracy? Now, similar questions have been raised about the 2013 elections.
Imran Khan’s allegations, which he is supposed to prove, include organized rigging to benefit PML-N. Can Imran or PTI come out with evidence like the one presented by Asad Durrani to establish a conspiracy?
Imran said he had evidence and if he really succeeded in his efforts, it would be difficult for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the PML-N to prevent new polls.
There was also a precedent that on many occasions the Supreme Court had declared the dissolution of assemblies illegal and unconstitutional, but the government was never restored once it was sacked except in 1993 when the SC restored Nawaz Sharif’s second government. But, even then he was forced to resign after restoration. This is just a brief reflection of our checkered political history.
But, on what moral grounds other political parties, which have governments in provinces and whose MNAs and MPAs have been enjoying perks and allowances for the last two and a half years, could challenge the elections which they had accepted by taking oath and forming governments?
For instance, the PPP co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari had declared 2013 elections as “elections of ROs,” but accepted the results and congratulated Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
The JC is making history as never before any commission of this nature was constituted. Secondly, never before so many political parties became party to the question of “rigging.”
Thirdly, its findings would determine, (1) whether there was organized rigging to change the results in favor of one party, (2) it will settle or lift the political temperature in the country, and (3) it will certainly set new directions for future elections and ways and means for fair and impartial elections in the country.
The JC findings will ultimately go to the government for implementation, but in case the JC’s advice includes new elections in the country, the PTI politics can take a new direction. Anything less than new polls may not satisfy IK or PTI, but they will accept its final recommendations, as even on Thursday Imran gave a positive signal, saying,” Democracy will get strength irrespective of the outcome of the commission report.”
For Imran Khan, it’s like “dream come true.” He has been waiting for this moment for the past two and a half years. He has the highest stake in the JC, as its final findings would set a political direction in the country. Perhaps, that is one of the reasons why he has hired an expensive legal team and will be getting maximum media attention.
He is also confident that his team has enough evidence to establish that the elections were manipulated and the PML-N was declared winner through an organized rigging.
So, Imran’s stakes are too high. But, what are his stakes. (1) His politics since May, 2013 election revolves around the alleged rigging. The JC is the outcome of his 126-day “dharna politics. So, now his supporters want the result. (2) He and his MNAs faced a lot of embarrassment when they decided to withdraw their resignations and went to the assemblies. Any findings other then organized rigging of 2013 elections would cause major embarrassment and humiliation to them, both inside and outside Parliament. (3) Any findings which declare the present Parliament legal and constitutional could be political suicide for the IK and PTI.
However, a facing saving kind of findings like we have witnessed in the past about the dissolutions of the assemblies may give a new lease to both the PTI and PML-N. The Judicial Commission has given one week to all the parties to submit their suggestions and evidences.
The JC, by asking parties to submit suggestions and proposals, may consider filing a number of recommendations for the future general elections.
The government on its part has already committed that if the JC declared that there was organized rigging, the prime minister may step down and the assembly may be dissolved. Since all the parties now party to the JC all are morally bound to accept its findings, certainly a history in the making and we can always learn from history. It is political tsunami, as almost all those parties which matter in our electoral politics have now become party to the JC.
The writer is senior analyst and columnist of GEO, The News and Jang.