Analysis of all six NA seats of Rahimyar Khan District: Parties’ position to be clear after finalisation of candidates

RAHIMYAR KHAN: Parties’ position will be clear after finalisation of candidates; the role of clans is vital in the district politics.

According to the new constituencies following is the detail about Rahimyar Khan District.

NA-192 has been changed into NA-175. In provincial constituencies, PP-285 has been changed into PP-255, PP-286 has been changed into PP-256 and PP-287 has been changed into PP-257.

NA-193 has been changed into NA-176. In provincial constituencies, PP-288 has been changed into PP-259, PP-289 has been changed into PP-258 and PP-290 has been changed into PP-260. These constituencies belong to Tehsil Khanpur. PP-288/259 is half in Khanpur and half in Rahimyar Khan.

NA-194 has been changed into NA-177. In provincial constituencies, PP-291 has been changed into PP-261 and PP-288 has been changed into PP-259.

NA-195 has been changed into NA-178. In provincial constituencies, PP-292 has been changed into PP-264 and PP-295 has been changed into PP-266.

NA-196 has been changed into NA-179. In provincial constituencies, PP-293 has been changed into PP-262 and PP-294 has been changed into PP-263. NA-197 has been changed into NA-180. In provincial constituencies, PP-297 has been changed into PP-265 and PP-296 has been changed into PP-267.

TEHSIL LIAQUATPUR: NA-192 has been changed into NA-175. This constituency belongs to Liaqatpur and currently Khwaja Qutub Fareed Koreja of Pakistan People’s Party is MNA from this constituency. In 2008, PPP’s Hamid Saeed was MNA from this constituency. Now both are aspirants of PPP’s ticket for provincial assembly seat. Hamid Saeed has personal votes in this constituency. He said, “It doesn’t matter if I don’t get ticket.

I will contest the election definitely”. Khwaja Ghulam Qutub Koreja enjoys the support of Makhdoom Ahmad Mahmood. Former ticket holder of PML-N Makhdoom Syed Ahmad Alam Anwar joined the PTI and his son who was vice chairman from PML-N also joined the PTI. With this PML-N’s position has weakened. If Hamid Saeed and Qutub Koreja contest for the national assembly seat, then this will benefit the PTI. It is yet to be seen who will get MPA’s tickets from both parties in this constituency. In 2013, Makhdoom Ahmad Mahmood supported Khwaja Ghulam Qutub. In 2008, Makhdoom Ahmad Mahmood was a contestant from this constituency from Functional League’s ticket and got 40,000 votes. If PPP succeeds in nominating only one candidate from this seat, then the party can easily win here otherwise PTI has bright chances. PML-N’s success is doubtful from this constituency.

VOTE BANKS OF DIFFERENT BIRADARIES: Chandia Biradadri, Langha Biradadri, Daha Biradadri, Arain Biradadri, Jutt Biradadri, Lar Biradadri.

PIRI-MURIDI CULTURE AND VOTE BANK OF PPP: The situation in the constituency will clear after PPP decides its candidates. In 2012, Ghinwa Bhutto had announced that Fatima Bhutto would contest the election from Liaquatpur but later Fatima denied this news.

KHANPUR CITY: NA-176 belongs to Khanpur City and currently Sheikh Fiaz-ud-Din is an MNA from PML-N. In 2008, Mian Abdul Sattar was MNA from PPP. Settlers’ votes are in majority in the constituency while in the rural areas PPP and Mian Abdul Sattar have majority votes. The current MNA Sheikh Fayyaz turned against Nawaz Sharif in Khatm-e-Nabuwat issue. He was the one who expressed reservations against Nawaz Sharif’s controversial statement about Mumbai Attacks and in the Parliamentary meeting chaired by Shahbaz Sharif, and said Nawaz should have refrained from giving such controversial statements. In 2017, during the session of National Assembly Sh Fayyaz criticised his own government’s loan policy and said Agricultural Development Bank was charging 16 percent interest from farmers which was against the policy of State Bank of Pakistan which has fixed the interest rate on 5.75 per cent.

Mian Abdul Sattar might be the contestant from PPP. On the other hand his brother Mian Ghaus is trying to contest the election from PTI ticket. Their clan is now trying to make the two brothers settle the candidature between them in order not to divide the clan’s votes. PML-N’s position becomes weaker if Sh Fayyaz’s ticket in this constituency is not settled.

VOTE BANKS OF DIFFERENT BIRADARIES: Settlers, Lar Clan, Jutt Clan, Local Arrain, Cholistan vote. Mian Abdul Sattar will win if he contests from PML-N ticket or PTI ticket. If he contests from PPP ticket then the constituency will see a close fight but his chances will still be less than his opponents.

NA 177 ZAHIR PEER/ RUKANPUR: This is the home constituency of Khusro Bakhtiar. It includes Rahimyar Khan and Khanpur. In 2013, Khusro Bakhtiar won the national and one provincial seat as an independent candidate. He contested against PPP’s Makhdoom Shahab-ud-din. In rural areas, PPP is very strong. This time around once again these two will face off in this constituency. Makhdoom Ahmad Mahmood is supporting the PPP candidate Makhdoom Shahab-ud-din. Makhdoom Imad-ud-Din was already an aspirant of PTI candidate but after the arrival of Makhdoom Khusro Bakhtiar in the party he could rebel against PTI leadership. The situation is tricky because Chairman of UC’s of Makhdoom Khusro Bakhtiar camp have joined Makhdoom Shahab-ud-Din’s camp which is making things difficult for the PTI candidate. It is a general perception that Khusro Bakhtiar just used the South Punjab Province slogan but if elected he would compromise on this extremely sensitive demand. Khusro Bakhtiar was also facing problems because he did not pay the sugarcane farmers in time but he has now started paying them which might help him. PML-N’s likely candidate from this constituency is Muhammad Nawaz Khan Rind.

VOTE BANKS OF DIFFERENT BIRADARIES: Baloch Clan, Chachar Clan, Galija Clan, Manik Clan, Khor Clan and Arrain Bradri. The Baloch vote is in majority but has been split among different groups. PPP enjoys popularity in this constituency if they are able to field any candidate of Galija or Baloch Biradaries on the provincial assembly seat then Makhdoom Shahabuddin would win easily however if Khusro Bakhtiar managed to get his constituencies’ chairman back, and bring any Galija or Baloch candidate for provincial seat, he can win this seat.

NA 178 JAMAL DIN WALI: This constituency is the combination of RYK and Sadiqabad. Jahangir Tareen has been winning this seat in the past but this time around it will be a contest between Khusro Bakhtiar and Mustafa Mahmood, son of Makhdoom Ahmad Mahmood. Makhdoom Ahmad Mahmood distributed 22,000 Benazir Income Support cards in this constituency. This is the home constituency of Makhdoom Ahmad Mahmood and his son was the former MNA. PML-N does not have any strong candidate from this constituency, therefore, Mustafa Mahmood is most likely to win again.

VOTE BANKS OF DIFFERENT BIRADARIES: Chauhan, Arrain, Chachar, Syed, Kamboh, Machi, Malik, Awan, Ghazali, Dar, Gopang. If Jahangir Tareen decides to support Makhdoom Khusro Bakhtiar he could give a tough challenge to opponents. But his win is unlikely, and Mustafa Mahmood will win.

NA 179 RAHIMYAR KHAN (RYK) CITY: Mian Imtiaz of PML-N was the last MNA from this constituency, which is home to number of settlers. The settlers’ vote could benefit PML-N’s candidate. Javaid Warraich won in 2008 on PPP ticket while PML-N’s Jaffar Iqbal is politically active in this area. Jaffar Iqbal’s daughter Zeb Jaffar was MNA on women’s seat while his son Umar Jaffar was MPA. It is likely that Jaffar Iqbal might ask for the party ticket but Mian Imtiaz is a strong candidate for party ticket. PPP’s Javaid Warraich has joined PTI which has made PTI’s aspiring candidate Zafar Warraich angry. PPP’s Amir Shehbaz from Arifwala who belongs to Arrain Clan could be a strong candidate of party ticket, however, if Makhdoom Ahmad Mahmood’s nephew Makhdoom Uaman contests from the provincial seat it could unite the vote banks of settlers and local people, giving winning chance to the PPP.

VOTE BANKS OF DIFFERENT BIRADARIES: Jutt clan, Cheema clan, Rana Clan and Kanju clan, Cholistan Siraiki Clan and Warraich Clan. PTI dominates in the urban centre only while PPP, PML-N and Makhdoom Ahmad Mahmood have more votes in rural areas. If Javaid contests NA seat on PTI ticket and bring a settler candidate on provincial seat then he has a strong chance otherwise if he fails to bring an Arrain candidate at provincial seat, he would lose.

NA 180 SADIQABAD CITY: Arshad Laghari of PML-N was last MNA from here. He defeated the son of Makhdoom Ahmad Mahmood. Leghari is still a strong candidate but getting a tough resistance from his own party’s MPA and Provincial Minister Ch Shafique. PML-N will face problem if both of them failed to mend the fences. Rafique Laghari is still struggling to get the ticket from PTI after rejection. While Makhdoom Murtaza Mahmood, son of Makhdoom Ahmad Mahmood, might be the contestant from PPP however if Raees Nabeel, son of former MNA Raees Muneer got the ticket of provincial seat under the son of Makhdoom Ahmad Mahmood then the seat can go to PPP.

VOTE BANKS OF DIFFERENT BIRADARIES: Laghari Clan, Andhar Clan, Settlers, Jutt Clan, Jhak Clan, Solangi Clan, Kosh Clan. PPP has a strong vote bank along with vote of clans and Ahmad Mahmood.

Makhdoom Murtaza Mahmood is a strong candidate from PPP because Raees Nabeel has joined PPP and will contest on provincial seat under Makhdoom Murtaza Mehmood.

Besides, Arshad Leghari and Ch Shafiq of PML-N are working against each other and their differences are still not resolved. This situation has caused a split in Leghari Biradari’s vote bank which will benefit Makhdoom Murtaza.