Politics over Model Town tragedy

For the first time after Army Public School massacre of 2014, two prominent political leaders ---Imran Khan and Asif Zardari --- who are practically not on 'speaking term,' would be sitting on the right and left of Dr Tahirul Qadri during an All Parties Conference called in Lahore to seek justice for the 14 workers of Pakistan Awami Tehreek killed in the same year by the police.

The common political agenda of the APC is to see the ouster of Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif before the next elections. While Imran Khan may try to keep a distance with Zardari during the APC, a possible 'handshake,' can generate a new political debate.

PPP leaders Asif Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto criticized Imran Khan and his politics during the Garhi Khuda Bux public meeting on Benazir Bhutto's 10th

death anniversary on Saturday, the Lahore APC could be a breakthrough and an attempt to bring PPP and PTI close on an agenda ---- ouster of Shahbaz Sharif. 

Shahbaz Sharif, who is the possible contender of Prime Minister in case PML-N wins the election and considered the man whose ouster could make way for minus PML-N government in the center and Punjab, is already under pressure from quarters demanding removal of Law Minister Rana Sanaullah.

Otherwise political adversaries Imran and Zardari have agreed to back any movement to further pressure PML-N government and Sharif brothers, as Punjab would be the hub of politics in the elections.

 Dr Qadri and PAT having electoral following are quite capable of creating unrest through Minhajul Quran movement, as they did in the 2014 sit-in.

Shahbaz and PML-N have recently got a major political boost when the Supreme Court rejected the NAB plea to reopen the Hudyabia case and gave relief in high-profile Orange Train project. The booster was much needed following the Baqar Najafi report.

 Interestingly, both PAT and PML-N described the findings of the report in their favour. Dr Qadri took no time in generating a political heat on the issue and demanded resignation of Shahbaz Sharif and Rana Sanaullah.

The PML-N leadership, on the other hand, see the move as a counter attack from the opposition after Nawaz Sharif announced movement against what he called  'injustice’ meted out to him.

 Dr Qadri, who has already set Dec 31 as deadline for Shahbaz and Rana Sanaullah to step down, would finalize and announce an agitation plan during the APC. In all probability the center of protest this time would be Punjab capital ---- Lahore.

 Interestingly, the PAT had never considered the Judicial Commission under Justice Baqar Najafi legal and had not only rejected the commission but also boycotted its entire proceedings.

 Now after the report was made public, Dr Qadri and PAT are demanding implementation of the report. On the other hand, the case of Model Town is already pending with the Anti-Terrorism Court against police officials concerned.    

The PML -N government and Shahbaz Sharif, perhaps, had committed a major blunder by not taking appropriate action after the massacre. The least he could have sacked the Law Minister.

 PML-N and Sharifs had mishandled Imran Khan and Dr Qadri in 2014, which led to a situation where Nawaz Sharif asked former army chief Raheel Sharif to talk to both these leaders. Ironically, even the FIR of Model Town was also reportedly registered after his intervention.                     

While PML-N and Punjab government, police and administration are responsible for Model Town, it is still a mystery as why did Dr Qadri end the sit-in to the surprise of many, including Imran Khan.                  

Though Imran Khan and PTI supported PAT on Model Town issue, confined their movement to the demand for a Judicial Commission on rigging.

PPP and Zardari, on the other hand, had never visited Dr Qadri after the Model Town tragedy in three years. On the contrary, they saw the sit-in and Model Town as a big conspiracy against democracy and Parliament.

 Now, Zardari has taken the center stage and not only visited the PAT chief but also said he would not let Shahbaz Sharif run the show and see his ouster before the elections. He is also expected to meet Dr Qadri Friday (today) second time in a week.

 Therefore, a political stage is about to set and one may see some surprise political activities in January and February before Senate elections.

 The opposition parties may join hands on the Model Town issue and go for public meetings, rallies and use all pressure to overthrow Shahbaz Sharif's government. They may also demand his and Rana Sanaullah’s arrest.

 Since Punjab and Lahore would also be the center stage of Nawaz Sharif and his 'Nizam-e-Adal' movement, the counter attack from the opposition can lead to political tension, something which may suit the opposition if it could block the Senate elections.  In this tense political atmosphere, there is very unlikely that the victim families of 14 workers of PAT would get any 'justice' but if PAT and opposition succeed in getting the younger Sharif out, they may get the double benefit.

 Therefore, despite some relief for PML-N government in getting the bill on delimitation passed from the Senate, which paved way for general election, the pressure on Sharifs is not over yet.

 How far the outcome of APC would also ease the political tension between Imran and Zardari would be interesting to watch, as there is lot of risk involved in it, particularly for PTI and Imran Khan, who is confident of his party's victory in next elections on  'anti-Sharif and anti-Zardari' agenda

 For PPP and Zardari, the only possibility of getting any space or breakthrough in 2018 would be to get Sharifs out.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO