Is this ‘Script Part-II’?

‘Dharna-fame’ Allama Dr Tahirul Qadri has suddenly become the central figure once again in the changing political scenario, apparently aimed at ousting Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif and increasing pressure on the Pakistan Muslim League- N government. This may lead to Election-2018 minus Sharifs.

Is this the unfinished agenda of the Script Part-I. This time, the support of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), both from inside and outside the parliament, can play a key role unlike year 2014, when the move was foiled. Now, can Sharifs survive the final onslaught with politics clearly showing signs of Sharifs Vs the Rest? It seems as if Shahbaz Sharif looked a threat to certain political forces as the main hurdle between them and the PML-N in the next elections. The PML-N is already under immense pressure, both from outside and inside, has come under more pressure. Will it be able to sustain this pressure till May 2018? Good news for the Sharifs is that the PML-N allies like JUIF, ANP and even MQM-P, PPP-Sherpao, PML-Zia are still backing them, but cracks can appear in case of any political mishap. On paper, constitutionally, the government is under no threat and can easily complete the rest of its six months term.

The first target for them is to ensure smooth Senate elections and the second to complete its tenure till May 5, 2018. The real test for them would be how to handle dharna-II, if such a call is given. Release of Model Town judicial tribunal report last week has given new hope to the opposition to build enough pressure on the PMLN and Sharifs to quit before March. With the PPP suddenly backed out from support to the government on the new bill on delimitation of constituencies, rumours once again gripped the country that there were no chances of elections on time. Dr Qadri, sitting in his Model Town residence, is calling the shot. His party, Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT), has limited electoral support, but he enjoyed the support of his well dedicated followers, who could go to any extent, if asked for. Chances of any patch-up between Imran and Zardari looked very bleak, despite some attempts made through veteran Sheikh Rashid Ahmad, who was excited over Zardari’s meeting with Dr Qadri.

This is the main problem and difficulty in the opposition’s game-plan. However, in case they manage to increase the tempo and thousands march on Islamabad again and draw massive crowds, the demand for resignation will increase. This dharna will have to be more against Punjab than the centre. Imran and his close party leaders believe that joining hands with Zardari in any form would badly damage party’s principled position. Imran’s PTI recently signed an agreement with the JUI-S, Maulana Samiul Haq and Difah-e-Pakistan Council, (DPC) has already upset Jamaat- e-Islami (JI), which has distanced itself from the PTI, and will break up in case of revival of Muttahida Majlis-e- Amal also supports Dr Qadri’s call. Former president, Asif Ali Zardari’s surprise visit to Minhajul Qurani, after three years, to condole the massacre in which 14 workers of Pakistan Awami Tehreek were killed, and his meeting with Dr Qadri, termed highly significant in the present scenario.

Mr Zardari looked very determined to oust both Sharifs, one because he wanted to take revenge from former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, what his government did to him and his friends, and secondly, to block the PML-N’s possible victory in the Senate elections in March 2018. Mr Zardari had been very active during the last two months, and some of his decisions have even surprised his own party members. He first backed out from the acrossthe- board accountability, and even replaced his trusted aide, Farhatullah Babar, who resigned from two parliamentary committees. His party has now delayed the bill on delimitation of constituencies in the light of the provisional result of 2017 census. If the PPP did not change its mind and sends the government packing, big question mark will be on the possible elections on time. Sources said Mr Zardari has also overlooked concerns of his senior party members of going all out against Sharifs and the PML-N, event at the cost of any confrontation, which now looked imminent, if Dr Qadri-led dharna gets complete backing of the PPP and the PTI along with some religious parties including Jamaat- e-Islami and Tehreek-e- Labaik Ya Rasul Allah, (TLYRA). Cracks in the PML-N are also widening day by day, and it would be interesting to watch the party now, practically led by Shahbaz Sharif, would be able to stop resignations of over one dozen MNAs and a number of MPAs in the next few days. Mr Zardari and Dr Qadri have worked out a common strategy and are convinced that as long as Shahbaz Sharif continues as Punjab chief minister, it may not be possible to give a crushing defeat to the PML-N.

Therefore, their one-point agenda now is Shahbaz Sharif. Imran Khan, the strongest opposition leader and someone who can get the maximum benefit in the next elections, if Shahbaz is ousted. He is supporting the move, but still reluctant to meet Zardari or join hands with him. All those who matter in the opposition ranks are visiting Dr Qadri after the release of Model Town Tribunal report, apparently to support his demand for resignation of Shahbaz Sharif. Imran Khan’s meeting with Dr Qadri in the next few days will be crucial before his call for a big dharna. Sources said the PTI was divided over joining any alliance in which Mr Zardari will also be there.

However, they will not have much problem if both the PTI and the PPP backed Qadri from their respective platform. In 2014, Imran and his PTI was disappointed when Dr Qadri suddenly quit and left dharna mid-way and criticised him, but continued supporting demand for inquiry and action against those responsible for Model Town massacre. Mr Zardari, on Dec 5, not only made a surprise appearance in the PPP’s grand public meeting to observe party’s 50th anniversary did not rule out the possibility that Sharifs may run away before the formation of Interim government. The PML-N and Sharif brothers have so far showed defiant, but for the first time a senior party leader and Defence Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif’s remarks on future of the PML, its strategy and assemblies and party’s weak position and capacity to sustain the pressure. Sources said both Zardari and Dr Qadri apparently reached consensus to oust Shahbaz Sharif and the PML-N government before March 2018. Strategy seems to be dharna till the resignation of Shahbaz, which can also lead to crippling the government at the centre. He announced support for Dr Qadri’s plan, dharna and demanded resignation of Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif. This will be followed by the visit of the delegation of Pak-Sarzameen Party (PSP), led by Mustafa Kamal and Anis Qaimkhani. Dr Qadri preferred PSP over MQM-P because of latter’s soft corner for the PML-N government. In 2014, he sought the support of MQM founder, Altaf Hussain for dharna through former governor Dr Ishratul Ibad. Next in the line is the PML-Q of Chaudhrys of Gujrat and PML-Functional of Pir Pagara, who is already leading an alliance called, Grand Democratic Alliance.

It is still premature to say whether we are heading for another PNA, this time against Nawaz Sharif or Sharifs, but, one thing is certain and that is from now onwards, it is Nawaz Sharif Vs the Rest. Dr Qadri was the key character in 126-days dharna in 2014, which, though led by Imran Khan for the resignation of former Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif and for constituting a Judicial Commission on alleged rigging in 2013, election, it was Dr Qadri’s well organised and vibrant followers, which stole the show and also showed glimpses of their violent streak when they allegedly attacked the Parliament and PTV. In 2014, the PPP rescued the PML-N government and Sharif and Parliament passed a strongly worded resolution. It is believed that it was all scripted and the umpire was behind the conspiracy. M r Zardari and his PPP may not get much out of the present crisis even if it succeeds in ousting the PML-N government. On the contrary, they may face criticism if the Parliament could not complete its term. But, it is between Sharif and the Rest, and the game is on to ensure elections-2018 without Sharifs. Can the two brothers be able to sustain the pressure? Just wait and see final outcome of what looks like the Script Part-II.

The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.

Twitter: @MazharAbbas- GEO