IS battle may be won, but Iraq faces major challenges

BAGHDAD: Iraq may have announced a final victory over the Islamic State group in the country, but Baghdad’s triumph remains fragile and the root causes for the Jihadists’ rise have not been tackled.

It has taken a long and devastating campaign to wipe IS from the map after the Jihadists threatened Iraq’s very existence by seizing roughly one third of its territory in 2014.

Troops backed up by the air power of a US-led coalition have waged some of the fiercest urban warfare seen anywhere in decades to oust the Jihadists from a string of cities and towns across the country.

But while Baghdad may be basking in its battlefield success for now, relying on military might will not be enough in the longer term.

"Everything remains to be done to dry out the earth on which IS flourished," said Karim Bitar, a regional expert at the Paris-based Institute for International and Strategic Affairs.

"The Jihadists have been deprived of oxygen and defeated militarily but the womb from which they emerged remains fertile."

Now the fighting is finished, the list of demands facing Iraq’s authorities is daunting -- and includes many key challenges that Baghdad has failed to address for years. "It involves first of all consolidating the power of the central authorities while pursuing inclusive policies that do not marginalise any community," Bitar said.

"Then it is necessary to tackle reconstruction, economic and social problems, stem corruption and ensure the equitable distribution of oil incomes."

All of this comes with Iraq on its knees after the brutal years of IS rule in the territory it controlled and the harrowing battle to defeat the Jihadists.

A donor meeting for the country is set to be held in Kuwait in February and estimates put the reconstruction bill facing Iraq at some $100 billion.

Iraq expert Mohammed Ould Mohamedou, a professor at Geneva’s Graduate Institute, cautioned that even the victory on the battlefield might not be as definitive as its seems.

The Jihadists have melted into the desert and maintained their capacity to launch brutal attacks across the country -- reverting to their roots as insurgent fighters.

"The question of IS is not going to disappear. The military aspect is far from over, and in this type of conflict, hostilities remain for a long time at a level that requires a substantial commitment," Ould Mohamedou said.

Key to preventing a resurgence by the Jihadists will be dealing with the profound sectarian grievances among Iraq’s community on which IS fed.

Sidelined in the wake of the 2003 US ouster of Saddam Hussein and targeted by the Jihadists.

But the harshness of IS rule ended up turning many against them and now the group’s fighters are gone the government needs to seize the opportunity to bring the community onboard.

"The work of reconstruction, in this case, is as much social as in terms of infrastructure," said Ould Mohamedou.

Even if Iraq’s government is serious about tackling the sectarian divide, the regional tug-of-war between Iran and Saudi Arabia could make it all the more difficult.

The two Middle East titans are locked in a power struggle that stretches from Lebanon through Yemen and Syria, and now Iraq could start figuring more prominently in the tussle.

"The Iranians and the Iraqi community remain in a position of strength, with control of the main levers of state," said Bitar.

"But the Saudis could become more active in the coming months as they seek to stem and repel Iranian influence on a regional scale."