Sharifs’ toughest challenge

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has faced many ups and down in his political career, which once took him to prison and then in exile. Each time he recovered, and in 2013, created a record by getting elected as prime minister for the third time. The kind of challenge he is facing today is, by far, the toughest, politically charged and personal too, where a lot more than his career is at stake.

His son Hussain Nawaz appeared before the Joint Investigation Team (JIT) for almost two hours and indications are that he may be called for more than once. Critical will be the question of Sharif's own appearance, if called by the JIT.

Hussain, who has already raised objections on the conduct of the JIT and questioned the eligibility of two members, apparently looked confident on the media, but avoided a talk.

There is no doubt that its a traumatic situation for Sharif and his family, but at the same time it is his responsibility as the prime minister of the country to satisfy the Supreme Court and to people as to why his children’s name appeared in the Panama Papers.

While the PML-N has no problem in completing its full term, it would not be easy for the party if an adverse verdict is pronounced against its leader by the SC. Sharif's present tenure is also a test of his nerves particularly after his heart surgery during the present crisis.

On Friday, his government presented its 5th and perhaps the last budget, though Finance Minister Ishaq Dar is confident of presenting the 6th budget also, as the government tenure would end in June next year.

On June 1, President Mamnoon Hussain too would address the joint session of the parliament for the fifth consecutive time. Whether Sharif would politically survive and retain his position as the PM in the final outcome of the case or not, the party still has few options to counter it.

Politics is the game of possibilities and opportunities and accountability of rulers or politicians is also part of democracy. The opposition did what one expects from it in any democratic setup. The PML-N also played a role of a strong opposition during the PPP tenure.

Therefore, Sharif or the PML-N should not get emotional over the kind of pressure which Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) or its leader Imran Khan, had been exerting on them on one issue or the other.

The PML-N too adopted the right strategy when they challenged Imran Khan's money trail as well as PTI's foreign funding, which somehow made the PTI nervous, as is reflected from its overreaction.

What must be satisfying for him was the fact that his beloved daughter and the one who will carry his political legacy, Maryam Nawaz has not been questioned and is practically out of the case, though some still believe she is not out of trouble.

This crisis and trial is different from the one Sharif brothers faced in 2001, when former military dictator, General (retd) Pervez Musharraf put them on trial in 'hijacking case’. In the first trial, the political and democratic forces condemned Musharraf. It’s different today as it’s a case of accountability through normal democratic and judicial proceedings.

Pakistan politics, in the process, is getting matured and it is a responsibility of the Parliament and the government to make tough laws for accountability of all, civilian or non-civilian under one umbrella. Something is missing in this country, where only civilian rulers are convinced, hanged or sent in exile.

Maturity has not only come among civilians but one must also give credit to the military establishment for supporting the democratic transition even in difficult circumstance like the one occurring in 2014 (Imran's dharna) or earlier in 2009 (during Sharif's long march).

The last four years have been difficult for Sharif. It is true that unlike PPP's previous government, Sharif's government did not face any mega corruption scandal before last April 2016, when the Panama Papers hit the headlines world over. Therefore, it would have the real embarrassment for him if he loses the Panama leaks case.

He has to reassess his government performance and governance issue in the last four years. One of his closest aides recently told me that during one of his meeting with the prime minister, he said, "Leave Panama aside, you should keep an eye on people around you. Because, ultimately the blame will come on you as the chief executive."

Sharif may not have faced the kind of pressure he is facing today, had he addressed some of the political controversies in his tenure. For instance, he could have easily avoided Imran Khan's political agitation after 2013 general elections, which later converted into 126 days dharna. He could have easily called for fresh elections in four constituencies which Imran had questioned.

Secondly, in post-dharna scenario, the prime minister had a golden opportunity to unite all the parties which stood for the Parliament in 2014. He badly mishandled the PPP affairs at a time when he had no direct conflict with former president Asif Ali Zardari.

The PPP, under Zardari, may have lots of issues but the fact remains that for democratic transition in this country it has played a historic role, from 1973 Constitution to the 18th Amendment. There are reasons to believe why Mr Zardari decided to surrender all his presidential powers to the parliament because of past experience which led to the dismissal of three governments under 58-2(B).

Sharif could have at least given some serious consideration to the advice of someone like Federal Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan not to go ahead with treason case against former army chief, General (retd) Pervez Musharraf, as he believed it was too early and secondly, it could create discomfort in the army's top brass. He could have taken this decision through political consensus in the Parliament.

Pakistan's two major political parties, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Pakistan People’s Party, rightly feared that if Sharif gets through Panama, he can push the opposition to another corner. Thus, both Imran and Asif Zardari, against all odds, can still come closer in somewhat surprising move.

In the next 60 days, no one knows how national politics would reshape except for that political uncertainty would rise and could go out of control. What we are witnessing today is unprecedented, but what can happen tomorrow is not difficult to predict.

Therefore, all eyes are on the Supreme Court, which in the light of the report of JIT, would decide whether 3-2 verdict in Panama should stay or change.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO