Fight for Mosul

Over the weekend, Iraqi troops entered the Isis stronghold of Mosul for the first time in two years. Kurdish troops had made the first successful strike against Isis forces in the north-eastern town of Bashiqa. The two-month time period given to take back Mosul seems to have accelerated, as Isis put up limited resistance. However, nothing can be guaranteed yet. With tens of thousands of Iraqi troops, combined with Kurdish fighters, ready for the fight to take back Mosul from the self-proclaimed caliphate, it seems inevitable that the city will be back in the control of the Iraqi government. It is only then that the real battle for the hearts and minds of those living in the city will begin. It is not surprising that many of those who stayed behind in Mosul after Isis seized the city will be sceptical over whether the Iraqi government can provide them long-term protection and also restore basic civil amenities and the supply of food and water. For now, weeks of deadly urban warfare could be the fate of the Iraqi troops since at least 5,000 trained Isis fighters are still said to be within the city. Snipers, car bombs and potential hostage situations await. Unlike previous attacks on Isis, where their fighters have simply withdrawn to safer locations, it seems the plan is to engage them in a fight till death.

The option of allowing Isis fighters to withdraw from Mosul to prepare for another attack is simply not there. The human cost of the coming battle cannot be underplayed. Mosul is already facing a humanitarian crisis. Hundreds of thousands of people are battling shortages of food and medical supplies. Amidst the ongoing war in Mosul, tensions between the Iraqi and Turkish governments have spiked up once again over Turkey’s insistence that it wants a role in the fight for Mosul. In this context, another call to war by the head of Isis, Abu-Bakr Baghdadi, might serve to mobilise his troops, although his recorded message was strange in that it did not mention Mosul. However, Baghdadi was reported to have urged his fighters to take the fight to Saudi Arabia and Turkey. There is no doubt that if Isis is allowed to survive, there is no chance of peace being restored in the Middle East. The battle for Mosul has been two years in the making. Failure will set the Iraqi government back years. The troops entering the city will need to ensure they minimise the civilian death toll and keep the flow of basic supplies into the city. The first step on the long road to peace in Iraq may be close.