A clear path to victory for PPP?

The ruling Pakistan People’s Party seems set to win the by-election for the National Assembly constituency, NA-258, in November and regain an area that has been one of the party’s few traditional strongholds in Karachi.

The party’s confidence cannot be described as misplaced since it has managed to bring Abdul Hakeem Baloch – a Malir-based veteran politician who had been a key impediment in the PPP’s previous attempts to secure the constituency and won the 2013 elections on a Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz ticket – into the PPP fold. 

The NA-258, one of the largest electoral constituencies of Sindh province which some analysts refer to as half of Karachi, had fallen vacant after resignation of Hakeem Baloch, who left the PML-N and joined the PPP last month.  The by-polls in the constituency will be held on November 22.

Although the PPP has not announced officially, Baloch is now a candidate for the ruling party for the constituency and started his electoral campaign.

“I was the PML-N’s lone MNA from Sindh but they [federal government] did not allocate funds for my constituency, though I waited them for over three years,” Baloch told The News. The NA-258 largely comprises rural and coastal areas of Malir, mainly inhabited by Baloch and Sindhi clans, as well as Pashtun-populated lower-income settlements of Landhi Industrial Area. Its boundaries touch Jamshoro on the north east, Thatta on the south east, the Arabian Sea on the south, Gadap on the south west, and Lasebla district on the north west.

“It shows that the PML-N is a central Punjab-based party and not interested in any development on the province, including its capital, Karachi,” he said.

Baloch said that he had joined the PPP to carry out development projects in his constituency and thanked the party leadership for allotting him a ticket for the constituency. “The PPP leadership, especially Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and chief minister Syed Murad Ali Shah, has promised to resolve the key municipal issues of the NA-258.”

There was a truth in Baloch’s statement, as in the following days; he attended a meeting presided over by chief minister Shah to discuss the uplift of the Malir district, which falls under the NA-258. 

Shah told the local government and health ministers and other development officials to ensure development projects in the city’s suburban parts.

Past electoral history

Local analysts believe that Baloch is likely to win the by-polls easily as the PPP has recently received a boost in the Malir district by regaining one of its provincial assembly constituencies – PS-127 – and winning two boroughs – District Municipal Corporation Malir and District Council Karachi – falling in Malir.

In the 2013 polls, the PPP performed very poorly in Malir district losing its traditional seats  including the NA-258, the PS-127, the PS-128 and PS-129 to a local-level electoral alliance – formed by Baloch, Haji Shafi Jamot and other social and political leaders who contested the PML-N’s ticket – and the MQM.

Even in PS-130, the division of the PML-N’s votes between its two candidates helped the PPP candidate win the seat.

In that election, Baloch won the NA-258by securing 52,751 votes, defeating PPP candidate Raja Abdul Razzaq, who was also the party’s district president, who secured 36,329 votes.

However, a tribal chieftain Jam Abdul Karim, has also emerged as a strong player, who as an independent candidate, ranked third by securing 29,948 votes, mainly drawing them from Sindhi clans, especially Jokhios.

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s Qurban Ali and Mutahida Qaumi Movement’s Ahmed Gabol and ranked fourth and fifth by securing 17,967 and 17,854 votes respectively.

In the 2008 general polls, in the wake of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the ‘sympathy swing’ in favour of the PPP helped party candidate Sher Muhammad Baloch win the seat by securing 133,962 votes. Abu Bakar Memon, an independent candidate, who has also recently joined the PPP in the local government polls, had ranked second by bagging 11,505 votes. 

In the 2002 general polls, PPP’s Sher Muhammad Baloch had secured 38,225 votes and defeated Abdul Hakeem Baloch, who had contested the election as an independent candidate and bagged 27,903 votes

Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam-Fazl candidate Maulana Abdul Shakoor Khairpuri, who contested the elected on the platform of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, a six-party electoral alliance of religious parties, had secured 17,630 votes while MQM candidate Syed Ameer Hussain Shah Lakhyari had secured 8,400 votes.

Electoral fight

Analysts say that rival groups, especially the PML-N and the PTI, have failed to field a strong candidate again the PPP.

Unlike the rest of the city, the MQM has never remained a key political player in the area as there are very few Urdu-speaking majority neighbourhoods there.  

More than 20 candidates belonging to various political parties and independent candidates have submitted their nominations papers to contest the by-election. 

A PML-N Karachi leader, requesting anonymity, said his party could not find a strong candidate in the constituency, who could even secure 5,000 votes. “In the past polls, Baloch contested on our ticket and most of his votes were drawn from the alliance, not the PML-N,” he admitted.

The PTI is of confident giving a tough time to the PPP in the constituency after Jam Karim recently joined the party. However, he had filed his nomination papers for the by-election as an independent candidate.

Circles close to Karim said he was trying to gain the support of both the PTI and the PML-N against the PPP and that was the reason that he chose to contest as an independent candidate.

“The PML-N will not support Karim if he contest the election on a PTI ticket”, said a close aide of Karim.

Inayat Khattak, a PTI leader in Malir, said his party had immense support of most of the localities, especially Gulshan-e-Hadeed, Steel Town, and various settlements of Landhi Industrial Area that fall under the NA-258.

“We thought Karim, after joining the party, would be a PTI candidate,” Khattak told The News.

However, he added that the party would soon announce its strategy for the NA-258 by-election.  “At the moment, the party’s is fully concentrating on the upcoming Islamabad-sit-in.”