Testing time for PM

Next three weeks are crucial for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, as he has to take some important decisions. He will have to deal with Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s threat to 'lockdown' federal capital, politically or administratively, present himself before the Supreme Court over Panama Papers, appoint a new army chief or give extension to the sitting Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif and manage the drop scene of journalist Cyril Almeida's story in Dawn.

All these decisions may not be directly linked with each other, but some do. PM Sharif, who is recently re-elected as president of Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), must be feeling political heat in otherwise pleasant weather in Islamabad.

It’s not only the test of Sharif's political sagacity but also of his nerves. If he manages to overcome these crises and takes decisions, keeping in view the possible fallout, he can emerge as the strongest prime minister after Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.

On the political front, he will be facing tough resistance from the main opposition, PTI's Imran Khan, who, despite welcoming Supreme Court proceedings, intends to stop government functioning from Nov 2, through ‘lockout of the government offices’ and stopping ministers, secretaries and other officials from going to their offices.

Now, what will PTI do if the National Assembly and Senate also meet during these days? Will the parliamentarians or members of the ruling party and its coalition be allowed or not?

Imran has already made his intention very clear that irrespective of the outcome of the Supreme Court, he will be making scores of ‘breaking news' and has also worked out the counter strategy in case the first tier of leadership goes to jail or detained at their homes. The second and third tier leadership had also been constituted “for spreading the agitation countrywide”.

Imran would be putting himself in a very difficult position in case he did not get any major relief from the SC. Some PTI leaders suggest that he can still defer the Islamabad protest, while others believe that if thousands of people would reach D-Chowk or Shahra-e-Dastoor, political pressure would increase on the government, parliament and other institutions.

However, all are sceptical about the fate of the movement if large-scale violence spreads.

It will also be a test of Imran and PTI's protest skills. Not many PTI leaders have an experience of spending some time in jail. Imran himself has 48 hours experience of jail and hunger strike. Shah Mehmood Qureshi and those PTI leaders who in the past remained associated with the PPP or Jamaat-e-Islami have gone through such experience.

Imran, who is now in a defiance mood, has now attacked the PPP leadership as well and accused former president Asif Ali Zardari of being hand-in-glove with Sharifs in alleged corruption. He claimed that the PPP leader had given a special task to opposition leader Khursheed Shah to counter the PTI move.

The PM now has two weeks to decided about the government's reply to the SC notice as well as to PTI's ultimatum.

The government would be making a big political blunder in case it decided to detain Imran and other top PTI leaders as it could push some other opposition parties towards PTI, which at present are maintaining distance from Imran's street agitation.

PM's statement on Thursday, welcoming the SC order, is of significance and also quite unprecedented since he is the main respondent. It also indicates that like in the case of judicial commission, Sharif has made himself mentally prepared for any outcome of the SC decision.

His statement has also put some moral pressure on Imran as well to defer his Islamabad siege plan till the SC decision.

Another crucial decision, which the PM Sharif has to take in the next three weeks, would be the appointment of the new army chief or giving extension to General Raheel Sharif, one of Pakistan's most popular General.

General Sharif had rejected all speculations nine months ago with an announcement that he would not seek extension and retire on time i.e. by the end of Nov 2016.

There was no surprise when Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had appointed General Raheel Sharif as the new army chief among the three senior most generals.

Some senior defence analysts believe that this time too the PM was expected to name the senior most among all generals as the new army chief.

General Raheel's predecessor General (retd) Ashfaq Parvez Kayani got extension of one full term during the PPP government. Kayani became the army chief after General (retd) Pervez Musharraf had long tenure of almost nine years, both as president and the army chief.

Sources said another decision which the PM has to make, or at least under pressure, is about the outcome of the investigation about Dawn’s Cyril Almeida's leak story. While the government probe team is yet to submit its report to the PM, the 'other side' had completed its internal probe and awaits PM's decision.

It may not be an easy decision for the PM to make particularly if some of government's men are suspected. Army chief General Raheel has already met the premier, at least thrice since the leak.

These are testing times for Nawaz Sharif as he has constantly been under pressure from one leak to another, whether Panama or Dawn leak.

Political developments in the next three weeks would be the test of the PM, his government, opposition, both inside and outside the parliament, judiciary and the establishment.

There are indications that the government may negotiate with the PPP over Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's four points including appointment of full-time foreign minister, accepting PPP's Panama bill and on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Sources said there can be some 'give and take' on these demands.

While giving ultimatum to the government till Dec 27, when the PPP would observe the death anniversary of former premier Benazir Bhutto, the PPP chairman knows that much would have happened when his party would actually launch its election campaign with the expected arrival of Asif Ali Zardari.

So, let us all wait for the political outcome in the next three weeks and see whether there will be continuity of the system by the end of November or there will be some kind of 'tabdeeli’.

The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang