Will Altaf face treason trial?

Ban on MQM Pakistan is not on the cards yet, but is the government considering extradition of Altaf Hussain to Pakistan for treason trial or would it be satisfied, if the British government bans him on the charges of inciting violence which, if proven, could put him in prison for a few years?

Altaf, for the first time since he opted to self-exile in January, 1992, is completely disconnected with today's Pakistan. The post-2013 establishment is different and so his own MQM whose leaders were not happy with his speeches which had put the party under pressure and workers in trouble.

His contact with MQM Pakistan ended within 24 hours after the August 22 speech and the anti-Pakistan slogans, putting him in a situation which he is confronting today.

Though anything can happen in Pakistan and at anytime, this may bring an end to his political career which started as a student leader from a lower-middle class in late 70s to a British national, as he led the party with unprecedented support. But he badly misread the change and may face the consequences.

Will this also bring a change in the establishment’s thinking that the policy of marginalising national parties by creating groups or promoting ethnic, sectarian groups or outlawed outfits often prove counterproductive and endanger the state.

Some within the government believe that the treason trial can open a Pandora’s box and, therefore, it should be deferred till the outcome of UK's decision. They don't want to bring him to Pakistan for any trial. At least, this is the situation in Pakistan at the moment.

Such delay was also caused in the murder of Dr Imran Farooq, although all the three suspects had been arrested only a few weeks after the former MQM secretary general was stabbed to death in London. Why the then government delayed in showing their arrest is a different story.

Unlike in the case of MQM, Altaf has pushed himself to the wall and it’s time for him to revisit his politics and should blame no one but himself for facing such an embarrassing position, particularly after his anti-Pakistan rhetoric.

Today, millions of Mohajirs, majority of whom had voted for ‘Jeaye Altaf' from 1987 to 2013, are in a state of shock, but if the MQM Pakistan succeeds in breaking all the relations with Altaf and its London chapter, as the case now looks like, it may give them some sign of relief.

Altaf is yet to be declared a traitor under the law but has lost the kind of cult he once had, but he himself needs to identify the reason. But it is interesting to see how within three years, from 2013 to 2016, he lost all the charm, both within and outside the party.

He is banned on media, completely disconnected with the establishment and political parties, and above all his own party has disowned him.

Prima facie, it’s a case fit for treason trial but may not be a reference to ban MQM yet. Altaf's case may not be confined to treason alone but it has also opened a Pandora box of terror financing and money laundering, in which some other leaders of the opposition parties can also be charged.

The Sindh Rangers and premier intelligence agencies are now convinced that Altaf and the MQM's militant wing allegedly established links with India’s RAW after the 1992 operation but were disconnected during nine years of Gen (r) Pervez Musharraf's tenure.

At present, there are some 600 alleged militants in Rangers’ custody and many of them had given confessional statements about their links with RAW. Therefore, there is a strong case against him for high treason ready under the law, if the government or the state wants so. It is now a political decision and the PML-N government might be looking into the political fallout of the case as happened in many high treason cases in the past.

Why the PML-N government may avoid the trial of Altaf could be his past relationship, not only with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif but also with top PPP leaders. There are certainly lot of secrets among them on the political front.

There is lot which Altaf can speak out, if put on trial, which may not provide him any relief but can certainly unearth some hidden faces.

What can be the possible impact on MQM whose Pakistan chapter has now closed all the links with London? It could be on permanent basis and may ultimately lead to the closure of London Secretariat, depending on the progress in investigation by Scotland Yard.

Sources say "all is not well in London" and suggest that some leaders are either considering leaving the party silently and settling there or extend support to MQM Pakistan. Some are also in touch with Pak Sarzameen Party’s London wing.

Altaf’s problems started aggravating after the 2013 general elections, when for the first time neither Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif nor PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari contacted him and invited the MQM to join the government.

He got so frustrated after waiting for a call from Raiwind or Bilawal House that he called a general body meeting at Nine Zero and blasted on his party leaders in Pakistan. What happened after his speech is now a matter of record.

His disconnect with the political ground realities of Pakistan made him a frustrated and lonely man and when the Rangers-led operation was launched in September 2013, he misread the situation. A strong message was given to Altaf after his January 2015 speech to just stop before it’s too late.

Governor Dr Ishrat-ul-Ebad was his best links with the establishment because of his vast experience both as an insider and also the one who knows Karachi as well as being the governor since 2002. Thus, Altaf actually completely lost the contact with the establishment when he lost Ebad and sacked him after issuing a ‘charge sheet'.

Ebad was a bridge and Altaf pushed him into a situation where a cool and composed Ebad came out with a statement that “I did not leave the party but the party left me”.

Ebad kept informing Altaf that if he did not stop making anti-army and anti-establishment speeches, he would not only face the ban but the party could also be in a serious trouble. However, he did not stop and ball started rolling, starting with Saulat Mirza's sensational disclosure followed by the fast pace in Dr Imran Farooq murder case as all three suspects were put on trial.

Altaf lost confidence and trust in Ebad when the governor advised him against joining the sit-in despite the message of Dr Tahirul Qadri and Chaudhry Sarwar to him that the government would be toppled, if the MQM shuts Karachi for two days.

Altaf and MQM were on their peak during Musharraf's nine-year rule and it was one of the reasons that despite the advise by some party leaders, the MQM allegedly got involved in the May 12 episode, as Musharraf wanted that former chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry’s procession must be stopped.

MQM lost its bargaining position after 2008, although former president Asif Ali Zardari and the then interior minister Rehman Malik maintained a cordial relationship.

Who is a traitor and who is a patriot is an old debate in Pakistan, as the successive establishments used politicians against their political opponents but never proceeded seriously.

Late Gen Ziaul Haq, who is often accused of making MQM, also had the credit of backing the separatist movement of Sindhudesh and using its founder late GM Syed. The Jeaye Sindh leader had never hid his intention to break Pakistan despite being the architect of presenting the Pakistan resolution in Sindh Assembly. He even wanted a trial and had prepared his confessional statement, but his death put an end to his case.

Zia used GM Syed and later MQM against PPP from 1977 to 1988. Once both GM Syed and Altaf also joined hands and some reports suggest their workers were also trained.

The PPP leaders and workers too had faced anti-state cases with over 10,000 activists being charged for their links with RAW. This policy was later followed by late Jam Sadiq Ali.

Historically, only two political parties in Pakistan had been banned for their alleged anti-state activities – Communist Party of Pakistan and National Awami Party – in the 50s and 70s respectively.

Altaf, who has already damaged himself, his politics and his party, now awaits the final outcome of pending cases and inquiries in London. Whether he would be extradited to Pakistan and put on trial or not, he has pushed himself into a helpless situation, which is a lesson for many.

It can open a new chapter in MQM’s politics and they have a chance to establish it as a democratic party but would have to bury some dark chapters of the party's past links with militancy. Can they do it?

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.