Slow cotton arrivals hint at difficult season ahead

LAHORE: The maiden cotton arrival report for the 2025-26 season shows a significant year-on-year (YoY) decline at ginning factories across the country, indicating a challenging year ahead.

According to figures released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) on Friday, as of July 15, 2025, a total of 0.2977 million bales of cotton had been received nationwide, marking a considerable 32.64 per cent decrease compared to the 0.442 million bales recorded by the same date last year. This represents a shortfall of 144,290 bales in total.

Worryingly, despite putting greater emphasis on early cotton sowing and a relative visible decline in area under cultivation in Sindh province, Punjab lagged behind in its contribution in total nationwide production of cotton for the current season. Against cotton arrivals of 0.152,6 million bales in Sindh for the ongoing season, Punjab could register flow of 0.1451 million bales.

A province-wise breakdown reveals other contrasting trends too. Punjab province experienced growth over its previous year arrivals, with 0.1451 million bales received, an increase of 30,726 bales or 26.86 per cent over last year’s 114,375 bales.

Conversely, Sindh province saw a sharp decline compared with its last year’s contribution, with only 0.152,6 million bales arriving, a reduction of a massive 0.175 million bales, showing a decrease of 53.41 per cent from last year’s 0.3276 million bales.

Keeping in view the trend showing in the cotton arrival from the Sindh province, it is feared that production of silver fibre may be severely reduced this season, mainly due to 35 percent decline in sowing area in the province, which is not a good sign for the country.

Astonishingly, more factories are running in Punjab if compared with the Sindh province despite being low in arrival volumes. Currently, 184 ginning factories are operational across the country -- 98 in Punjab province and 86 in Sindh province.

In terms of procurement, exporters and traders have not made any purchases this season, while the textile sector has acquired 249,980 bales. As per 2025-26 cotton volume figures, astonishingly, Rahim Yar Khan, a prime cotton producing district of Punjab only showed arrival of 15 bales, against last year’s flow of 2310 bales, showing massive 99.35 per cent decline. The huge decline in cotton production in Rahim Yar Khan, otherwise a major cotton-producing district in Punjab, is alarming and reflects a broader crisis in the South parts of the province.

According to the PCGA report, major contributions to Punjab’s cotton output include Vehari 33,950 bales, Khanewal 28,825 bales, Dera Ghazi Khan 19,397 bales, and Sahiwal 13,605 bales. Smaller quantities have been received from Multan 3,700, Lodhran 1,070, Muzaffargarh 2,120, Rajanpur 9,200, Layyah 3,970, Bahawalpur 7,650, and Bahawalnagar (2,900) districts.

Beyond Punjab, Sanghar district in Sindh has recorded a substantial 130,037 bales, with Mirpur Khas (5,100), Nawabshah (1,100), Jamshoro (1,500) and Hyderabad (9,813) also contributing. Balochistan province has seen 5,100 bales arrive at its factories. Notably, the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has not yet made any cotton purchases this season, resulting in an unsold stock of 47,771 bales of cotton.